It is that time of the year, again (apparently). :) I see winter forecasts being posted on various web-sites. As a reminder to everyone :) - long range forecasting is not an exact science. Not yet, at least. Now, dont get me wrong, I love to speculate about whether the winter will bring lots of snow, lots of ice, lots of cold, or a chunk of warm coal in my stocking. Being a snow lover, I am a bit biased towards forecasting cold and snow. I have to be careful not to let my snowflake clouded mind influence my keyboard. A clip (below) from John Dees web-site. I found this years ago and bookmarked it. I would like to start out by trying to differentiate between seasonal forecasting and weather forecasting for the next week or so. All weather forecasting involves a percentage of guessing. A forecast for the next 24-48 hours might be 90% science and 10% guesswork, and by the time you are trying to forecast for days 7, 8, 9 and 10, the percentages might be more like 50% science and 50% guesswork. By the time you get into seasonal forecasting, there is little proven science and methodology behind those forecasts- at least methods that truly work. Most seasonal forecasts are really just creative writing using meteorological terms! Things like Analog Years is a favorite among some forecasters out there. The problem with that method is that we do not fully understand what causes large scale weather patterns to persist. Thus saying something like: We had a similar weather pattern or happenings back in the summer and autumn of 1956, so that means this winter will be like the winter of 1956-57 is similar to saying: The last time I had a sore throat it turned out to be strept throat. So the sore throat I have now must also be strept throat. What I am trying to say is that it takes more than an observation of what is happening in the weather to be able to forecast future events. It takes a good understanding of what is causing the current weather trends to be able to say what factors will influence the weather in the coming months and we are just not there yet.. So as you read this, keep in mind that all my schooling and experience does not really give me much of an advantage over anyone else with an interest in the weather and a yearning to say what he/she things will happen this winter and no one else with formal training in meteorology is any further along than me (no matter what they might claim!). So ALL SEASONAL FORECASTS SHOULD BE TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT OR EVEN A BIT OF HUMOR. I encourage you to read this johndee/seasonalfcst/soapbox.htm
Posted on: Tue, 12 Aug 2014 20:53:45 +0000
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