It seems that Putins strategy in Ukraine is the transformation of an insurgency into a frozen conflict. This is a tested model (Gaza, Demilitarized zone between Koreas, and so on) which utilizes the tendency of the population for normalizing slow-running geopolitical tensions. That is, it will be common in East Ukraine to see rebels performing policing functions to the point that in a couple years people will not be able to imagine an alternative. Of course, this model works only under conditions when international sanctions are not permanent or when shut-off markets are balanced by new - albeit less lucrative - opportunities. One might suspect that for Russia a feasible market would be members of ASEAN or South Africa and the lot. This makes sense as these economic sectors are much more lax in institutionalized quality control or subject to pressures HR resolution pressures. An alternative could be Latin America. However, the recent investment into Brazil and Venezuela have not produced the returns which Kremlin had hoped for. In addition, the sanctions against Russia have come on the heels of a set of new trans-Atlantic treaties which strengthen economic alternatives for Europe. This means that Russian exports will more than ever depend on demand in East and South-East Asia.
Posted on: Mon, 22 Sep 2014 04:18:16 +0000