Ive been looking over the year-to-year averages of convert baptisms per full-time missionary (from 1977, the first year the numbers were available to calculate the average, through 2013) and I, like others, have noticed an interesting trend. With the exception of one year (1978), from 1977 through 1996 the average convert baptisms per missionary was at least 6.0 and above (with a high of 8.0 in 1989). In 1997 it dipped below 6.0 (to 5.6), and the average has never gotten back to 6.0 or higher since then. For the past 17 years straight (1997 through 2013) the average has been in the 4s and low 5s (with 2013 having the lowest average with 3.4, the FIRST time EVER it fell into the 3s). In addition, the last year to see a total number of convert baptisms over 300,000 was in 1999, which seems to have been the end of a golden era of LDS missionary work: i.e., over an 11-year period (1989-99) the 300,000 mark was reached 8 TIMES; that number hasnt been seen in the last 14 years. The question then becomes, why? I think the Internet has had a lot to do with it -- around the time the average number of convert baptisms dropped below 6.0 (in 1997) the Internet was gaining worldwide influence. And that average number has only continued to drop (to this years abysmal 3.4) as the Internet becomes all the more integral in everyones lives. And, as Christopher Smith pointed out in his essay, inserting the huge surge of full-time missionaries into burned-over districts is showing dramatically diminished returns. I dont know how to reverse this trend (some believe more service missionaries may help), but it is alarming and has to be giving the Brethren great concern.
Posted on: Tue, 08 Apr 2014 13:33:17 +0000
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