J&Ks Political Balkanization Jammu & Kashmir today is politically divided and polarised like never before in its history. As the Assembly Elections draw close, there is a stunning political drift. Almost all political parties and individuals in their quest for survival and relevance are pulling the state in different directions. No one from the pro-election or the anti-election parties seems to be talking about a unifying agenda rooted in the states core political interests to stop the drift. Quite curiously, there are no election manifestos available from political parties now that could give a clue to what political parties thinking about the peoples collective political and economic aspirations are. But why should we be talking about a unifying political agenda in the first place? A unifying political agenda in Kashmir is important because in its absence there will be political anarchy. Interests of individuals, constituencies, sub-regions and other interest groups will prevail over the collective political and economic interests of the state. The implications of that anarchy will be grave and long term. This situation fundamentally also exposes the underbelly of stark political opportunism - not guided by ideological or political principles but by pure power ambitions - in the state. When it comes to the political divide the first one comes from the election participation-boycott debate divide. The anti-election parties have once again called for boycott of the Assembly Elections. And does that call really help the cause of Kashmirs political dignity and justice? From a neutral analysts point of view, the boycott call yet again runs counter to the avowed goal of that political justice. The boycott call leaves the whole political space where key decisions about the vast gamut of that elusive justice are made open to maneuvering by the same entities seen as the adversaries. It is like a man whose apples are his survival leaving his orchard open to outsiders to pluck his apples, calling for their plucking not be stopped. It is serious paradox. If not a direct full fledged participation, these groups ought to call for support to candidates of political credibility and honesty. Candidates who are not collaborators of any side. Candidates who are driven by a sincere desire for the states progress and safeguarding its unique identity. The second divide manifests in the absence of a pre-election alliance between the major regional political parties based on a common minimum agenda based on the states core interests. And the absence of such an agenda would not in all likelihood give a decisive mandate to any political party or formation in the state. Quite naturally it is only the PDP and the NC which could have forged such an alliance. Now that such thing has not happened it has serious political ramifications. Another possible alliance could have been between the PDP and the Congress. But it seems that the PDP hasnt been too keen for such an alliance despite the Congress inclination. Then there was the possibility of an NC-Congress alliance. However, given the Congress decline in Delhi and elsewhere NC has chosen to play safe. The much anticipated BJP-PDP alliance doesnt seem to have come to fruition for the political risks and the ideological divergence between the two parties in all likelihood prevailed over the possibility of any common ground. A possible NC-BJP alliance doesnt seem to have become a reality either for obvious reasons. The BJP-Peoples Conference (Sajjad Lone) political understanding may be path breaking but it seems unlikely it would have a major electoral impact. The major ramification of the absence of a unifying political agenda between parties that stand committed to inclusive democratic principles and safeguarding of the states special political identity will be big division of the votes on lines that may not serve the states interests. And that division will be a major loss for these parties in most parts of the Jammu region. Now as things seem to stand, BJP may actually take major number of seats in the Jammu region. PDP, Congress and NC may find themselves on somewhat equal footing. Panthers Party may not do bad either. In Kashmir region PDP seems poised for a large gain while NC and Congress will be catching up. It is uncertain how well Peoples Conference would do, although it doesnt seem to have promising prospects of its support translating into spectacular electoral gains. The Ghulam Hassan Mir - Tarigami - Hakim Yasin - Engineer Rashid poll alliance looks interesting, however, this time round if fair polling prevails this groups ability to profoundly impact the political permutations and combinations looks remote. Beyond these alliances what looks spectacular is the beeline of a large number of political activists belonging to Congress, NC and even PDP embracing BJP in both Jammu and Kashmir regions. Such shift of allegiances might not matter too much. What, however, would be significant are the possibilities of post election alliances. If it would be a loose coalition government comprising of the BJP, Panthers Party, Sajjad Lone s Peoples Conference, the Mir-Yasin-Tarigami- Engineer Rashid coalition and other independents and cross-overs then we will be having a political watershed. It will be this kind of government that could be the beginning of a formal political balkanization in Jammu & Kashmir. There could also be a government comprising of PDP and the Congress. Electoral results could even create the possibility of a combined PDP-Congress-NC government. In such circumstances it would be actually a tradeoff between politics of polarisation and insensitive assimilation and politics of inclusiveness and political dignity. For most part of its post-1947 political history, Kashmir’s political parties have remained unquestionably wedded to the dogma that there is no life for the state beyond a close alliance with whatever party rules in Delhi. If the NC chooses to be guided by the same dogma with its relationship with the BJP then Kashmir’s interest of unity, inclusiveness and political dignity will again fail. If the PDP chooses to take that path it may serve its short term political ambitions but the states larger interests would come under a lot of strain. In the final analysis it is a litmus test for parties like the NC and PDP to safeguard the states secular, inclusive and special constitutional identity. Together they can do it easily provided they take steps to find the common ground - which in fact is in plenty. That approach would need to shed the baggage of the past, the accumulated egos and exclusive political ambition. (AHT, Dateline Srinagar, GK, 16 Nov 2014)
Posted on: Sun, 16 Nov 2014 05:14:36 +0000
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