June 13, Thursday , HK time 6:10 pm, today , Japan Nikki down big , Asian stock market also down big , investor or traders are concern about Japan market down, because it may indicate ,QE does not work , at least not work in Japan market , Why it seems to work in US market, but not in Japan market ?? logical sense tell us because the Japan economy is worst than we expect, so even big QE cannot pull it out , it has been bad for last 20 years, when Yen up from 230 to 75 , this has damaged Japan export market for 20 years, US economy is different, 50% of their product is make oversea , company performance still good, so QE will work , but not in Japan. Now , US has to slow down or cut back QE ,its just a matter of time, this month, three month , at most six month, China seems to slow down also, so it means the whole world economy is not picking up, in another sense means high probability to go down to a global recession, and high unemployment worldwide, ? What to do ? I will not pretend that i know a lot and give my opinion, its better to leave to the economist to deal with it. There is nothing we , you or me can do , even we want to help, there is nothing we can do . The best way to help is to do our own best in our own field, to make more money and save it , CASH is KING is always true , inflation will eat up the cash, i agree, but only HK has inflation because of the open economy , USA has big QE and no inflation at all , at least now. Global market will be very volatile, ES futures is very volatile compare to last year, last night, Dow open up 120 pt, later down 126 pt to close, gold and oil futures also volatile , its good time for trader who has an edge , its a bad time for main street , or trader has no edge, or people who just making salary each months. good luck , and be prepared if you can. No one has a definate solutions for Y 2008 crisis , in fact the crisis still continue at this time, but in different form . please do not think we are better off than Y 2008 , wait till US pull back the QE , and all the inflated asset including HK housing bubble , I do not want to say , but if we study poltical science or history, the only solution is to have a War or many War , its cruel , so lets hope it wont happen. But academically, War is the only solution to lower unemployment and put business in full production, so as the economy , we want peace , the rest leave to the politician and economist, lets work hard , hope for the best, but prepare for the worst,
Posted on: Thu, 13 Jun 2013 10:25:02 +0000
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