[Junio, 13] Informe original del conjunto NOAA, USAF y U.S. Dept. - TopicsExpress

[Junio, 13] Informe original del conjunto NOAA, USAF y U.S. Dept. of Commerce. ClimaEspacial.net/informes-solares.html ------------------------------------------------------------- :Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity :Issued: 2013 Jun 12 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2013 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11/2100Z to 12/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 477 km/s at 12/0430Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 11/2110Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 11/2208Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 554 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (13 Jun, 14 Jun, 15 Jun). III. Event probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 12 Jun 093 Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 095/100/105 90 Day Mean 12 Jun 121 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 006/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 005/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 005/005-005/005-005/005 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun-15 Jun A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 20/20/20 Major-severe storm 15/15/15

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