Kory Kroft, Fabian Lange, Matthew Notowidigdo, and Lawrence Katz find that shifts in demographics, occupation, industry, region, and the reason for unemployment jointly account for very little of the observed increase in long term unemployment during and after the Great Recession. Allowing for duration-dependence in the job-finding rate and in the rate of transitions from unemployment to non-participation, in contrast, contributes significantly to explaining the post-2008 pattern. Link to paper in first comment.
Posted on: Mon, 21 Jul 2014 16:17:26 +0000