***LATEST UPDATE ON SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA*** *** NOW CATEGORY 5*** ***EVERYONE FROM MACKAY NORTH TO GRENVILLE, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN TOWNSVILLE NORTH TO COEN, NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THIS SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE*** *** MOST MODELS INDICATING A COASTAL CROSSING LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON BETWEEN COOKTOWN AND PRINCESS CHARLOTTE BAY. HOWEVER, A MORE SERIOUS SCENARIO FOR THE MAJOR POPULATION CENTERS ALONG THE FAR NORTH TROPICAL COAST WHERE SEVERE TC ITA TRACKS SOUTH DOWN THE COAST IS A POSSIBILITY AND NEEDS TO BE KEPT IN MIND WITH YOUR PREPARATIONS*** ***IMPORTANT INFORMATION FOR EVERYONE TO READ*** Good Evening to everyone out there hope your Thursday is going well. As mentioned models are in close agreement with a coastal crossing between the Cooktown to Princess Charlotte Bay sections of the FNQ coast, however a more serious scenario for major population centres like Cairns and Townsville but especially Cairns where Severe TC Ita gets close to the FNQ coast and then tracks south Parallel to Cape Tribulation and the Cairns coast due to the weakening of the mid level ridge of high pressure steering TC Ita south then south east and keep it just off the Townsville as it moves Parallel to the Townsville coast and continuing on towards Bowen. A look at the models where they suggest possible landfall location and estimate time of landfall. Note the various models and their suggested tracks are again included for your comparison. Euro: Suggests a coastal crossing near the Cape Melville area north of Cooktown late friday more or less what the BOM track Map suggests before tracking south inland just to the west of Laura and continue inland just in behind Cairns weakening as it does so before re-emerging back into the coral sea and continuing south east parallel and to the north of the Townsville coast. UKMET: suggests a coastal crossing late friday a little further east of where the Euro suggests closer to cooktown. The UKMET is beginning to agree with what the GFS has been doing for the last 4 days and hug the coast as it moves south parallel to the Cape Tribulation and the Cairns coastlines, now whether Ita is located just over land or just off the coast is impossible to tell. The longer term it re-curves south east parallel and to the north of the Townsville coast before following what the Euro suggests and continuing on towards Bowen and back out further into the Coral Sea. GFS: Has been suggesting the Re-curve scenario for the longest and now the other models have come on board with this scenario and the GFS is in agreement to the UKMET with a landfall or close to a landfall to the near north of cooktown before tracking Parallel to the Cape tribulation coast and Cairns coast however where it disagrees with the UK on how close it gets to the Townsville coast while tracking parallel to it. The UK suggest more north of the Townsville coast while the GFS keeps it a lot closer. The FIM 8 and FIM 9 experimental models agrees with the GFS and UKMET scenarios. Current Location and Remarks: Latitude: 12.6S Longitude: 147.0E Location Accuracy: within 5 nm [15 km] Movement Towards: west southwest Speed of Movement: 10 knots [18 km/h] Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 110 knots [205 km/h] Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 155 knots [285 km/h] Central Pressure: 935 hPa Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita has intensified significantly today with the system now exhibiting a clear eye pattern on the recent satellite imagery. Deep convection has developed further near the inner core of the system with very cold cloud top temperatures now surrounding a well defined warm eye in the infrared satellite imagery. The system remains situated in a low vertical wind shear environment with sea surface temperatures greater than 28 degrees. CIMSS upper winds depict very good outflow above the system, which has allowed intensification to occur today. ADT is following this intensifying trend with a greater than a 100 knot system being analysed. Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita is being steered towards the west-southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge extending across the central Coral Sea and up over the Solomon Islands. The system has been moving faster than forecast and quicker than any of the computer model guidance is indicating, so therefore some persistence has been paid to the short term forecast track. The mid-level ridge is expected to erode into Friday, which should then lead to the system developing a southwest track prior to landfall along the far north Queensland coast. Most of the global computer models are now indicating that the system will cross the far north Queensland coast late Friday between Cape Melville and Cooktown. Included are the latest Model track guidance plus Satellite pic on Severe TC Ita and the latest track maps from the BOM and the JTWC. 1. Latest CIMSS satellite pic 2. UKMET 4. GFS 5. FIM 9 5. FIM 8 6. latest BOM Track map 7. latest JTWC track map As always it is extremely important to always keep up to with all the latest on Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita by regularly checking here on Townsville Storms and Also the Bureau of Meteorologys website for all their latest products and warnings which will be updated every 3 hourly. We will continue to do updates on Severe TC Ita via this page. Posted to Townsville Storms by Shane @ 6:15pm
Posted on: Thu, 10 Apr 2014 08:20:06 +0000
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