LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD OFF...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ERN SEABOARD AND ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL BREAK SHIFT EAST. AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ROCKIES IT WILL DIG FURTHER SOUTH AND FORM A CUTOFF LOW SOMEWHERE OVER TEXAS. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER...OR JUST EAST OF...ARKANSAS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND MUCH OF THE LONG TERM SHOULD BE DRY. HOWEVER WITH TIME MOISTURE RETURN WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTH INTO TEXAS. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR WESTERN ARKANSAS...WITH BROAD BRUSH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST BY MONDAY MORNING. MODEL DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE GOING ANY HIGHER THAN ABOUT 30 PERCENT AT THIS POINT. FOR INSTANCE THE GFS DIGS THE APPROACHING TROUGH/DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW SOUTH OF ARKANSAS...LEAVING THE STATE IN A DRY SWATH BETWEEN THE CUTOFF LOW TO THE SOUTH AND A NRN STREAM TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY. THE EUROPEAN IS MUCH WETTER. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE EURO IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND CONTINUED THAT TREND TONIGHT...BUT LIMITED RAIN CHANCES TO 30 PERCENT GIVEN THE OPPOSING DRY SOLUTIONS. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THEY WILL LIKELY END UP A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL...BUT WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING TO ARKANSAS BY SATURDAY...AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SIMILAR.
Posted on: Mon, 08 Dec 2014 12:22:22 +0000
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