Latest NWS Forecast Discussion and Hazardous Weather Outllok for Saturdays Heavy Rain event and Low chance of Severe Storms: FORECAST DISCUSSION: RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNRISE SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THERE IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON SATURDAY. LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE HELICITY WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ROTATING STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS SPC CONTINUES THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN PLACE, UNIDIRECTIONAL HODOGRAPHS, AND BROAD SCALE LIFT IN PLACE, A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE IN PLAY. ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD 1-3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RELATIVELY LITTLE RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE MAIN TROF PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY, ADDING POSSIBLY ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF RAIN. A SIMILAR MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED BY SPC. ==================================================== HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK: A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH DEEP MOISTURE, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED THREAT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR DAYBREAK SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE TIME FRAME. WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND DORMANT VEGETATION THERE COULD BE EXCESS RUNOFF LEADING TO A FEW FLOODING CONCERNS ALONG WITH POSSIBLE RIVER FLOODING ISSUES. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
Posted on: Fri, 26 Dec 2014 11:16:51 +0000
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