MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1262 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1156 PM CDT WED JUN 26 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF TN AND EASTERN/FAR WESTERN KY TO FAR WESTERN VA/NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375... VALID 270456Z - 270630Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 375 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A SHORT-TERM DAMAGING WIND THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KY WHILE SEVERE TSTM WATCH 375 CONTINUES ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN UNTIL 08Z...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SOME HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A SEEMINGLY LOW PROBABILITY OF A WATCH ISSUANCE TO THE SOUTH OF WW 375 /SUCH AS NORTHERN AL/. DISCUSSION...AS OF 0445Z...A STRONG/SEVERE MCS CONTINUES TO RACE SOUTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 40-45 KT ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KY INTO NORTHEAST TN. A 46 KT GUST WAS MEASURED AT SOMERSET KY AS OF 0415Z. WHILE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM PER IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE INTEGRITY OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE/LEADING UPLIFT HAS TENDED TO DIMINISH...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL NONETHELESS REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT FROM FAR SOUTHEAST KY INTO EASTERN TN AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF VA/NC GIVEN THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE MCS/COLD POOL. MEANWHILE...A WESTERN FRAGMENT OF THE MCS/COLD POOL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL TN AND PERHAPS REACH NORTHERN AL. THIS PORTION OF THE LINE HAS ACCESS TO A GREATER RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY /1000+ J PER KG MLCAPE/...REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE LOWER 80S F AS OF 04Z. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ON A LOCALIZED BASIS...WITH SEVERE HAIL ALSO A POSSIBILITY ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY.
Posted on: Thu, 27 Jun 2013 05:03:39 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015