MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1791 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 AM CDT THU OCT 02 2014 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/MO INTO WRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 513... VALID 020733Z - 020930Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 513 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...LIMITED/LOW-END SEVERE RISK CONTINUES IN AND NEAR WW 513. DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ONGOING ATTM...FROM PARTS OF OK/ERN KS EWD ACROSS MO INTO CENTRAL IL WITHIN A BROAD ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. STORMS HAVE REMAINED GENERALLY DISORGANIZED OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...THOUGH A BOWING LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS E CENTRAL MO/W CENTRAL IL ATTM COULD POSE A RISK FOR GUSTY/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. THIS CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE NERN FRINGE OF THE AXIS OF GREATER INSTABILITY...AND THUS EXPECT A LONGER-TERM WEAKENING TREND WITH THIS BAND OF STORMS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS ERN KS/MO...MARGINAL SHEAR WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER IN CONJUNCTION WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPORADIC STRONGER/SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS...WITH MARGINAL HAIL AND PERHAPS A LOCALLY STRONGER GUST POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
Posted on: Thu, 02 Oct 2014 07:38:09 +0000
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