METEROPOULOS UPDATE: Monday, 1/26/15 @ 1:53AM *** MAJOR BATTLE BETWEEN EURO & OTHER MODELS *** *** OTHER MODELS SAY EAST - LESS SNOW FOR NYC *** *** KING EURO AT 1AM SAYS HUGE SNOWS FOR NYC *** QUICK SUMMARY: Man oh man!!! This weather stuff NEVER gets easy! SERIOUSLY!!! Here is the scoop. There is a MAJOR battle going on tonight between the EURO and ALL the rest of the dozen or so models. I made my post 3 hours ago. All looked well. Some models shifting around earlier in the day with some minor differences, but that is to be expected with any storm. It is quite the norm. BUT, once the 18z suite came out late this evening, ALL the computer models started shifting EAST, EAST, EAST!!! That means less snow for all since the low doesnt gets captured in time... too late to bomb out and throw back those big snows to us. PA, NJ, NYC is right on the line of who gets big snows or not since the gradient between heavy and lesser snows falls right smack dab in the middle of our great city, hence why it is so important to get that low to bomb out west enough so we can get big snows since we are also more west than everyone else. So run after run, each individual model kept coming east giving us less snow. Instead of 2 feet or more, they would spit out only a foot or less. Run after run, the SAME thing. Uh oh, does the National Weather Service bust low, does SO many forecasters bust so low so close to the storm? Flashbacks of March, 2001 all over again? Well, we ALL know KING EURO got its name for a reason. It is by far the best model. We must respect it. And EURO doesnt come out until 12:45AM tonight. She came out and said, YOU LEAVE PETES SNOW ALONE!!! Give that man 25+ since he is such a heck of a guy! Yep, KING EURO said screw you all, keep the HUGE snow totals right where they are, as you can clearly see in the updated EURO map I posted below. NOW, the question is this, do the other models respect KING EURO and start to go back west so we ALL get raked, or does the EURO back down tomorrow and go back east along with the rest of the crew? THIS is truly a big war in the meteorological world. Its more than this storm, its if the KING can hold his crown! Maybe there is some kind of a compromise and we get 18 so no one is really wrong, or it can go to any side of the spectrum with really big snows, or a lot less. To be honest, I wasnt buying the huge numbers all day. I posted them since it is big news that the EURO would speak this, as well as the NWS and other media outlets. But, this is 3 STRAIGHT RUNS where the EURO has given NYC over 2 feet of snow. That is money right there. Maybe she is wrong, but man, this is exciting to watch! Just a reminder. East of NYC is all big snows regardless, this is ALL about that area immediately around NYC. That is the battleground. Long Island, Central to Eastern CT, New England is still a solid lock for big snows either way. They have a huge margin for error. We dont. This is EXACTLY what I was talking about in last nights post. I said I didnt feel comfortable about that no margin for error, and here we are. I felt it and I was right. We now have to sweat this out. Either way we all will get at least a foot of snow. It is a question whether we get a foot - or FEET of snow. I need some sleep and we will see what the EURO says tomorrow at 1PM after all the other models speak first. Stay safe and keep you posted! Pete Lymberopoulos (aka: The Snowman) BRAND NEW EURO MAPS...
Posted on: Mon, 26 Jan 2015 06:53:23 +0000