MONDAY EVENING ***SHARES AND LIKES REQUESTED TO SPREAD THE WORD***dz DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1224 PM CDT SUN OCT 05 2014 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY...OH VALLEY AND TN VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...TENNESSEE AND SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. ...MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY/SRN OH VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MS VALLEY ON MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF A MID-LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AT THE SFC...A TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS ON MONDAY. AS SFC TEMPS WARM TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SFC TROUGH...AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM AR ENEWD INTO WRN TN AND WRN KY. THIS IS WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS ORGANIZING AND MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AT 21Z/MONDAY FOR MEMPHIS TN AND PADUCAH KY SHOW MLCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME VEERING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT FROM THE SFC TO 700 MB WHICH SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND POSSIBLY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES OF 25O TO 300 M2/S2 MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A TORNADO THREAT WITH THE MOST DOMINATE CELLS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN ERN AR...NRN MS AND WRN TN WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE EAST. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS CELLS ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS OR LINES BY EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP WWD INTO THE ARKLATEX LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THIS THREAT WILL BE MORE CONDITIONAL AND MAY BE CONCENTRATED NEAR PEAK HEATING DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION WHICH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY EVENING.
Posted on: Mon, 06 Oct 2014 00:43:52 +0000
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