Manmohan Singh presided over the worst ever period of equity returns in India. Turns out, it is a tad different: Manmohan’s rule has delivered the best ever 10 year period of equityreturns in the history of India. So why then the clamor to throw the UPA out? Did the UPA bankrupt India, is it leaving with its “coffers empty”? Depends on how you define these terms. If making India grow 7.5% compounded over 10 years, while sharplylowering its debt/GDP from a near-bankruptcy under the NDA (from 85% Debt/GDP in 2003 to 67% today, all at 7% WPI inflation), reducing India’s interest payments/budget revenues from 50% under the NDA, to 30% now, keeping India’s sovereign debt to extremely low levels, bringing the current account deficit to a near neutral level. Is India the sick man of Asia/world? Was the decade a lost one? Or did we not grow from being a minnow economy to being the world’s third largest in this period. Narendra Modi is a youth icon, right? Based on what? Because he has generated tons of jobs for the youth in Gujarat, somebody tells me. That’s great. But wait a second in which industries? Since Software/IT exports from Gujarat are just 0.25% of India’s software exports, and lowly Orissa does more IT exports than Gujarat, so it can’t be IT. Services growth in Gujarat has been abysmal (Services account for just 42% of its GSDP, vs 60%+ for all major states and India). So the jobs must in manufacturing. But, my analyst tells me that almost 90% of Gujarat’s manufacturing output since 2002 is accounted for by just two cos Reliance and Essar. The last I checked, refineries didn’t need lakhs of bright, fresh-faced youth to operate. Nor do the highly polluting dyes, chemicals, pesticides industries that form the bulk of Gujarat’s industrial landscape They can easily do a thousand crores in sales with just a thousand people. Diamond polishing, maybe? But, even though I know nothing about this, I doubt if this needs an MBA or IIT engineer. Have the youth of Gujarat gotten sign-on bonuses to become milk-men, brick-layers, masons or carpenters, all to support its booming agriculture and infra industries? Probably not…So, my mind keeps asking non-stop: what is this mystery industry where the youth of Gujarat have found salvation and rozi-roti? I thought Ganga was the most polluted river in India, and needs to be cleaned, as per Modi.Delhi the most polluted city. Maharashtra the most polluted state. But Google search results have shown Sabarmati and Vapi the most polluted rivers in India; Gujarat,the most polluted state, and Ahmedabad, the most polluted city, in India. Check it out for yourself. Why isn’t anybody asking the question of why Gujarat’s debt service burden is the second highest in India (after Punjab, a state driven to near-bankruptcy by the Badals)? I am surprised how easily we have swallowed all the tripe about a certain model of development…or about Gujarat Model is well past its “Sell By” date.
Posted on: Mon, 14 Apr 2014 16:58:12 +0000
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