Marc Trestman and probability analysis! Here is a statistics final exam question I just wrote for later in the week, but I cant use it as it is biased in favor of my students who happen to be football fans. See if you can figure out the answer. ----- Last Sunday, Marc Trestman, the Chicago Bears head coach, was criticized for not calling a time out just before the end of regulation time in the game against Baltimore. The Bears were winning 20 to 17 with 4 minutes and 48 seconds left in the game. Baltimore got control of the football on offense with the ball on their own 16 yard line and began running plays to go 84 yards for a 7 point touchdown to take the lead. Baltimore was successful over the next 3 and a half minutes and have moved the ball to the Chicago 5 yard line (5 yards from scoring a 7 point touchdown or a 3 point field goal) with 1:16 left in the game. Many sportswriters and fans thought that Trestman should have called a timeout at this point to stop the clock (note to non-US students: unlike soccer where the clock constantly runs, in American football the clock stops and starts following a complex set of rules.) They argued that if Baltimore scored points, at least Chicago would then have enough time left to try to counter that score. Instead, Trestman let the clock keep running and Baltimore ended up scoring a 3 point field goal to tie the game with 3 seconds left. (Chicago later won the game in overtime). When Trestman was asked to explain his decision on Monday at a press conference, he employed a probability analysis. Here are the key things he said: “When you start a drive from the 16-yard line, you have a 13 percent chance, [historically] in the last five years, to score a touchdown. “The first time where I considered calling a timeout was after Ray Rice had the 11-yard run down to the 5-yard line. And … I think [there] was about 1:16 [left on the clock.] “So, the percentage of them scoring--It’s a leap of faith. They went all the way down the field. Three points yes. Tied the game. Seven points? We’re talking 13 percent.” Marc Trestman is a very smart guy, but he messed up his probability analysis here. Can you spot and explain his mistake?
Posted on: Wed, 20 Nov 2013 19:51:20 +0000
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