Michael ALLPAC Tropical Update and Pontifications for Thursday, August 7, 2014- The EPAC is on fire right now, with 3 hurricanes and another system trying to get organized. The primary concern is for the Hawaiian islands and hurricane ISELLE. The latest forecasted track takes this storm over the Kau region of the island, which will place most of the big island in the eyewall, and worse, on the dirty side of the storm. I my humble opinion, based on over 40 years of close observation of these storms, the forecast should follow through as advertised. First, upper-level winds will not shear the storm apart, as has been the case in the past. In addition, sea-surface temperatures are abnormally warm this year. Lastly, low-level steering winds will prevent the storm from making a poleward turn anytime soon. If this forecast holds, it will be a new experience for big island residents. Preparations should already be underway. JULIO also continues to track towards Hawaii, and the latest forecasted track takes it just north of the archipelago. This would be the best scenario, placing the islands on the clean side of the storm, and suffering very little effect. INVEST 98E is way out there too, and well keep an eye on it for the next week or so. In the WPAC, its pretty quiet. Typhoon HALONG (Jose) continues to threaten maritme interests southeast of Japan. The forecasted track, however, takes this strong typhoon into Japan this weekend. People living in the southern areas of the country should begin preparations now. Thoughts for the day: The best thing one can do when its raining is to let it rain. - Henry Wadsworth Longfellow Let the rain kiss you. Let the rain beat upon your head with silver liquid drops. Let the rain sing you a lullaby. - Langston Hughes Be safe friends!
Posted on: Wed, 06 Aug 2014 23:45:25 +0000
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