Military Giants and Diplomatic Gigantic Freshly the major agenda in Ethiopia is faux pas of Egyptian Politicians concerning Grand Ethiopian Dam…the erroneously live aired senior Egyptian politician opinions about the Dam has clutched many more attention…panic of Egypt may attack Ethiopia…Indeed, for those observe the military status of Egyptian, it would put in dread. The Global Fire power ranked Egypt the 1st military power in Africa with almost five thousand thanks, Two hundred military helicopters, 863 military aircrafts, 28 mine warfare, 84 serviceable airports and a yearly budget of over 4 billion dollar. Consequently this might puts many in fear. Comparably when we see the position of Ethiopia, the country has strong military in the continent. The Fire Power ranked Ethiopia 2nd in the continent with over 300 tanks, 1200 armored vehicles, 147 aircrafts, 68 helicopters and 300 million dollar defense budget. But many military analysts speculate that Ethiopia has kept in secret many more sophisticated military types of equipment. Therefore, if there is military confrontation between two African military giant countries, concerning firepower whilst Egypt is seems like prevailing, Ethiopia also contemporary power through military power. That is why Egyptian scared to attack Ethiopia from the very beginning of the construction of the dam. However, it is not dead sure to conclude that Egypt is not in a position to attack Ethiopia. Especially with 3 billion dollar per year military aid from US for years, the Egypt military may be fortified with the long range cross country missiles. In addition to the missiles and massive warplanes, concerning geopolitics Ethiopia is bordered through north direction with big enemy Eritrea and in west with the Nile downstream Sudan which not happy with the Grand Ethiopian Dam construction. There is a probability to these countries are side with the Egyptian sabotage. Therefore, there is a probability of military confrontation. But the possibility of diplomatic solution is prevailing. In light of diplomatic solution, Ethiopia tremendously would take the advantage. Firstly, from my point of view since the oust of Hosni Mubarak especially after the takeover of Mohamed Morsi westerns those relied on Egypt for many decades are seems like desperate to recommence their strong strategic friendship with Egypt which has noteworthy geopolitical advantage in the conflict prone Middle East as well as North and East Africa. As well Morsi administration is trying to strengthen the diplomatic ties with eastern contemporary powers like Iran, China rather than US, Israel and other western countries. This could force the western to stare at Ethiopia the 2nd choice vis-à-vis geopolitics. Ethiopia is mostly momentous to westerns for two main reasons; 1st with the lost of Egypt allegiance to westerns the geopolitical area of Ethiopia proximity to Middle East, 2nd the huge diplomatic position that Ethiopia has in African Union. Therefore these key issues would shove westerns to alter their way to Ethiopia rather than Egypt. This is the main diplomatic gain to Ethiopia while decay for Egypt. That is why I infer that westerns may behind the construction of Great Ethiopian Dam. From my point of view the foremost point why Egyptian afraid to confront with Ethiopia is the assumption of if the westerns are behind the curtain in the dam construction. The other what is snag for Egyptian to kick off the military strike is the inner instability since the fall of the Mubarak regime. The volatile scenario in Egypt is challenging the solidarity of Egyptian. Within this condition it is tricky to presume that Egypt would enter war with Ethiopia./////
Posted on: Thu, 06 Jun 2013 06:18:02 +0000
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