Mobiles: From Nothing to Boom… to Bust…? The growth, not only of subscriptions, but also of devices will grow. And with that growth will come an insatiable appetite for bandwidth and data. Tiny SMS messages are one thing, but increasingly people want to be able to stream TV to their mobile device over mobile data. The problem is of course that the available parts of the electromagnetic spectrum is running out. “Deloitte predicts that although additional spectrum will continue to be made available in 2013 in many global markets, spectrum exhaustion will continue to exacerbate in many countries, especially in dense urban areas. End users will continue to see performance impacts as a result, primarily in the form of lower speeds, but also through inability to access networks and dropped calls or sessions. The reason is simple demand for spectrum will exceed supply. Demand for wireless bandwidth continues to grow in leaps and bounds, but supply is relatively constrained. By 2014 the US alone may suffer a 275 MHz spectral ‘deficit’ There are a few consequences of this: Cellular bandwidth will become rationed through price – meaning that there will be a “digital divide” between those who can afford ($100 pcm?) for high-speed data and those who can’t, or won’t. “Throttling” will take place at peak hours or in crowded locations. In 3 years time, we will look back fondly and remember the happy days of being able to watch television “on the go” Some magic technology will save us What you personally believe the outcome will be depends as much on your personality and politics as it does on anything else. The more cynical amongst you will see the big teleco companies gradually increasing the prices to extract as much revenue as possible from consumers with the least amount of squealing. Which actually is rather the whole point of any commercial business . The more optimistic / naïve of you will assume that there will be a technological rescue. Most likely, there will be a combination of all four but it’s hard to see people wanting less… Source: “The World in 2013: ICT Facts and Figures”
Posted on: Thu, 06 Jun 2013 01:40:40 +0000
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