Monday, 20 October, 2014 Forecasts for Ireland ALERT for strong winds, heavy rainfalls and potential moderate storm surge (west coast only) tonight and Tuesday morning. TODAY ... Passing showers, some of them rather heavy, with brief sunny intervals, winds generally moderate SW (40-70 km/hr) until late afternoon, and highs 13-15 C. Rainfalls 5-10 mm. TONIGHT ... Stormy conditions will develop rapidly especially in Connacht and west Ulster, from vigorous remnants of Gonzalo. Periods of heavy rain will develop with some embedded thunder. Winds will rapidly increase to SW 70-100 km/hr in most regions and 90-130 km/hr in exposed locations of the northwest. This will produce a moderate storm surge into Galway Bay, Donegal Bay and other coastal areas, note that astronomical high tides are around 0430 to 0500h which unfortunately is well timed to coincide with the surge. Overtopping by 0.5m or more can be expected. The conditions will not be quite as severe in west Munster although very blustery at times. The south coast could also have a brief period of strong winds before the trough passes. Note also, conditions over marine areas of the near Atlantic will become very rough overnight and force 11-12 winds are possible off the west coast and possibly force 10-11 off the south coast briefly (force 9-10 likely Irish Sea by mid-morning). More generally, the strong winds and blustery showers will make driving rather dangerous with a few trees coming down, power outages, and the potential for local flooding or hydroplaning conditions. Temperatures overnight will be steady near 10 C, falling off slightly in Connacht by morning to 7 C. Rainfalls of about 20 mm are likely in most regions, 30 mm locally inland northwest. TUESDAY ... The very strong winds will gradually moderate in most regions, but may persist well into the afternoon in parts of Ulster and north Leinster, as well as coastal north Connacht. Passing showers will become confined to the north with more frequent sunny intervals in the south. Winds WNW 70-110 km/hr easing to 40-70 km/hr. Feeling cold all day north, morning elsewhere due to the wind, highs eventually reaching 10 C north, 13 C south. WEDNESDAY ... Partly cloudy, milder, although steady rain likely near north coast and in some inland parts of Ulster. Highs near 14 C. THURSDAY ... Cloudy, mild, periods of rain. Lows near 8 C and highs 13-15 C. FRIDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers, lows near 6 C and highs near 13 C. OUTLOOK ... Showers at times, gradual improvement into next week, some very mild and at times sunny conditions towards end of the month. Note that the wind and rain will hit parts of Scotland, northern England and Wales during the early morning Tuesday and will continue most of the day in eastern England. Otherwise the pattern there will be similar to the above. The storm will have somewhat less impact on southern England although coastal wind gusts to 110 km/hr are likely, inland it will be around 80 km/hr at peak. Will update North America later in the week, for now, my local weather on Sunday was very warm with highs into the low 20s. There was a lot of cloud with brief sunny breaks. -- Peter for IWO
Posted on: Mon, 20 Oct 2014 06:40:35 +0000