Morning Highlights By Phyllis Nystrom Highlights • Weather: 6-10 day for Sept. 4-8 shows below normal rainfall for the entire Corn Belt; temps are forecast to be above normal west of a line from western MN to eastern TX, normal for states bordering the Mississippi River, and below normal to the east. • Some cooling and scattered rain is forecast for the Corn Belt Sunday/Monday. Over 60% of Iowa is suffering from moderate drought, up from 35% last week. In general, next week will be cooler than this week with some chances of rain a week from now. • First notice day for September contracts is today. Deliveries: soyoil 651, last date Aug. 26; KC wheat 19 contracts, last date June 27; Minneapolis wheat 106 contracts, last date July 18. No deliveries in corn, beans, meal, or Chicago wheat. • Energies are lower as the threat of an immediate attack on Syria subsides. A parliamentary vote in Britain this morning voted down joining any military action against Syria. • Grain markets close at the normal time today, and don’t reopen until Monday, September 2nd at 7:00 pm CT. No markets Sunday night or during the day Monday in observance of Labor Day. CHS Hedging will be closed on Monday, September 2nd, but we will have someone in the office from 4:00 pm – 9:00 pm CT to take orders. • Curious about CHS Hedging’s CHI Compass contracts? View our Tools Available for Producers Using CHI Compass contracts video at youtube/user/CHSHedging/videos Corn • December corn edged deeper overnight into the gap left on Monday, cutting the gap to $4.76 ¼ to $4.74 ½. • Gulf values have been slipping with southern corn harvest progressing and record yields being reported in some locales. • Commodity Weather Group cut their US corn yield to 158.1 BPA from 159.5 BPA last month. Macquarie Bank is predicting 155.5 BPA, down from their previous estimate of 158 BPA. USDA’s August projection was 154.4 BPA. • The CZ/CH carry has held at 12 ¾ and crop size will eventually determine how wide that carry will go, but with very good yields being reported in the South, suggest layering shorts out at 14 or better. • Palm oil was 1.5% (36 ringgit) lower overnight, but should see its best monthly gain since December 2010. • China’s corn was down ¾ cents equivalent overnight. Outlook: Unless weather forecasts change, look for corn to be lower today. Monday night’s open will be dictated by weather. Soybeans • Next support in November soybeans is the top of the gap left on Monday at $13.31 ½. • China sold 393.6 tmt or 79% of the 500 tmt beans offered from their reserve in their weekly auction. This is expected to have little effect on imports according to reports, since these beans were sold to inland crushers that only process domestic beans, or food processors. • Macquarie Bank is forecasting US bean yield at 41.5 BPA, down from their previous 42.2 BPA estimate. USDA in August was 42.6 BPA. • September meal made another new contract high at $473.30 on Thursday. • China’s beans were 13 ¾ cents lower overnight with their meal off $10.90. Outlook: A break in the weather next week, a soft Thursday close, profit taking ahead of the 3-day weekend, month end, and weaker energy markets should keep beans on the defensive today. Monday’s open is anyone’s guess, if it’s dry – higher, wetter-lower, but probably a sharp move whatever the direction. Wheat • Japan bought 43.6 tmt of food grade wheat from Canada and Australia for shipment by Nov. 30th. • Australian farmers are reportedly holding back on sales on ideas crop damage and Chinese demand will raise prices. This coincides with a multinational grain company raising their price outlook and Rabobank’s expectation that Abares may lower production by 2.5 mmt from its current 25.4 mmt. • Russia’s wheat harvest is off to a good start. With 54% harvested yields are reported at 2.43 tons/hectare versus 1.92 tons/hectare last year. Outlook: Wheat is holding up well on possibly lower Australian production and in spite of losses in the soy and corn. Look for a choppy/lower day into the 3-day weekend.
Posted on: Fri, 30 Aug 2013 12:25:19 +0000
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