Morning e-mail from Jeff: Ridge of upper level high pressure is in firm control of the weather and will result in hot and dry conditions through the rest of this week. Could see an isolated thunderstorm along the seabreeze front this weekend if Gulf moisture is able to increase and the ridge aloft backs to the west some. Recent rainfall in July was spotty and not all locations benefitted from rainfall while other locations picked up several inches. SE TX has been is some form of drought nearly this entire year and drought conditions have been prevalent since the aftermath of Hurricane Ike now nearly 5 years ago. The entire state continues to suffer through dry conditions with significant impacts on water supply across central and west TX where the impacts of the 2011 drought remain. All of SE TX is covered by severe drought conditions with areas of extreme drought noted southwest of College Station and across portions of our coastal counties. Rainfall Deficits for 2013: BUSH IAH: -9.39 Hobby: -7.78 College Station: -3.30 Galveston: -5.50 Angleton: -15.00 Palacios: -14.15 Tomball: -9.25 Conroe: -4.59 Huntsville: -4.64 League City: -7.62 Note: BUSH IAH has recorded 17.62 inches of rainfall thus far in 2013 (through 7-21-13). If you sum up the rainfall departures for BUSH IAH from Jan 1, 2009 to July 21, 2013 a staggering rainfall deficit of 51.85 inches is found. Put in another way in the last 4.5 years over an entire year’s worth of rainfall is “missing”. The average rainfall for BUSH IAH is 49.77 inches. Below is the rainfall and deficits for BUSH IAH going back to 2009: 2009: 47.01 in (-2.76 in) 2010: 42.72 in (-7.05 in) 2011: 24.57 in (-25.20 in) 2012: 42.32 in (-7.45 in) 2013: 17.87 in (-9.39 in) though 7-21 Vegetation Health/Fire Weather: Even with the recent rainfall, extremely dry conditions exists across much of the area. KBDI values range from 600-700 across nearly all of Brazoria, Fort Bend, Brazos, Grimes, Washington, Burleson, and northern Austin counties. A few spots in Brazoria County are over 700. The scale runs from (0 completely saturated to 800 completely dry to a depth of 8 inches). Values over 600-700 typically support extreme fire weather conditions and within the last few weeks the number of grass fires has increased especially over Brazoria County. This week a 200+ acre fire developed in Bastrop County near Smithville (now 60% contained), but this indicates the fine and even some larger fuels are starting to dry. Luckily besides some gusty winds in the afternoon hours, wind speeds have been averaging below 15mph and RH recovery has been good in the evening and overnight hours. A total of 119 counties are currently under burn bans including: Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, Colorado, Waller, Grimes, Montgomery, Austin, Brazos, and Washington. Water Supply: Locally water supply is doing well with most water supply lakes/reservoirs above 90% of capacity. Conditions are much more dire in central TX where severe water supply issues remain. Current Water Level Departure from Normal Pool: Lake Conroe: -2.98 ft Lake Georgetown: -15.54 ft Sam Rayburn: -4.20 ft Lake Livingston: -.73 ft Lake Somerville: -5.40 ft Lake Travis: -56.40 ft Lake Buchanan: -29.37 ft Lake Amistad: -55.94 ft Lake Mackenzie: -96.07 ft Outlook: Little to no significant rainfall appears likely through next week especially away from the coast. Temperatures will continue to run warm, in the upper 90’s to low 100’s. Evaporation rates will remain high and vegetation health will continue to decline. Our only real prospects for widespread wetting rainfall would be some form of tropical system if the massive ridge over NW TX would give a little ground. Long term outlooks suggest drought conditions continuing into October and possibly worsening.
Posted on: Wed, 31 Jul 2013 13:04:42 +0000
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