Morning everyone! I know you heard me talking about this a few times. We have been watching yet again for another SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) event. What is a SSW? Sudden Stratospheric Warming is an event where the polar vortex of westerly winds in the winter hemisphere slows down or even reverses direction over the course of a few days. The change is accompanied by a rise of stratospheric temperature by several tens of kelvins. This is the 3rd time around we are noticing a significant rise in stratosphere temperatures over the last 2 months. This time is a lot more potent. With the last 2 warming events, it was only a short burst creating a minor SSW event. This time along, the warming is stronger and longer prolonged. You ask yourself, does this mean this winter is going to be warm? SSW are notorious for bringing very cold weather. Reason being is the Polar Vortex breaks apart and displaces southward to the middle latitudes. Last years extremely cold winter was the cause of a full break down of the Polar Vortex which forced it southward across Canada. With whats going on right now, Significant warming is forecasted over the next week. Strong geopotential energy will put a lot of force on the strong Polar Vortex. This warming know as a kelvin wave will force alot of warm up into the stratopshere. This forcing will help slow down the zonal winds from 80 m/s to 35 m/s and maybe even further. In order to get a major SSW, these zonal winds need to be below 0 m/s in which the wind direction will completely reverse. Looking at forecast it does appear there are signs of a splitting sister PV signatures, a very good sign that this SSW is pretty strong. If a major SSW occurs. the effects wont occur until this first half of January and then its game on for the winter! This is a crucial key we have been watching because this can completely alter the winter into a very cold and potential snowy one. -Hunter
Posted on: Thu, 18 Dec 2014 15:11:59 +0000
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