My Tennis Predictions For 2015. This will be the last year of all that has been familiar to us for the past 6 years. Heres why: When you consider that ONLY 3 of the top 20 men are under 26, and Nishikori is a solid question mark in my mind, you have a harbinger for volatility on a large scale staring you in the face. Take out those 3 youngsters and you have a 28.76 median age of the 17 older players. Age - Rank Name Country 27 - 01 Djokovic, Novak (SRB) 33 - 02 Federer, Roger (SUI) 28 - 03 Nadal, Rafael (ESP) 29 - 04 Wawrinka, Stan (SUI) 24 - 05 Nishikori, Kei (JPN) 27 - 06 Murray, Andy (GBR) 29 - 07 Berdych, Tomas (CZE) 24 - 08 Raonic, Milos (CAN) 26 - 09 Cilic, Marin (CRO) 32 - 10 Ferrer, David (ESP) 23 - 11 Dimitrov, Grigor (BUL) 29 - 12 Tsonga, Jo-Wilfried (FRA) 26 - 13 Gulbis, Ernests (LAT) 33 - 14 Lopez, Feliciano (ESP) 26 - 15 Bautista Agut, Roberto (ESP) 28 - 16 Anderson, Kevin (RSA) 32 - 17 Robredo, Tommy (ESP) 28 - 18 Monfils, Gael (FRA) 29 - 19 Isner, John (USA) 27 - 20 Fognini, Fabio (ITA) Now lets extrapolate and have some fun with the top 100 where the real volatility will come from, and lets start with a real curiosity. After running the age numbers for the top 1-50 and then the top 51-100 you end up with a median age of 28.22 years of age against 27.22 respectively. That means there is EXACTLY, almost to the day, one years difference between the top 50 and the next 50. Not a very telling story is it? However if you remove the youngsters from the top 50 (7 who are 25 and younger--and will likely stick around) and you remove the older journeymen from the bottom 50 (20 who are 29 and older--who are likely fading and already have one tennis shoe out the door) a very different picture emerges. The gap in age widens dramatically. The top fifty are now 28.95 years old and the bottom 50 are 24.7 years old. Now the story is telling. It is remarkable that the old guard dominates like they do and at 29 years of age. It should be no surprise that youngsters sit at the bottom but they are 25 years of age. Not exactly 19 year old upstarts. Conclusion: I dont think this is sustainable. This 29 year old dominance is fading. There will be a shift downward in median age on the tour. Perhaps by only 18 months but that will be significant. It will mean a lot more 22 year olds which will be important for the sport as younger players relate better to them. We need more youth making a dent in our tournaments. Who will emerge? If I stick to just the numbers -- age wise -- this is your top 20 two years from now: Future Rank - Current Age...current rank, Name, Country 01 - 24...5 Nishikori, Kei (JPN) 02 - 24...8 Raonic, Milos (CAN) 03 - 23...11 Dimitrov, Grigor (BUL) 04 - 24...22 Goffin, David (BEL) 05 - 25...34 Klizan, Martin (SVK) 06 - 25...37 Johnson, Steve (USA) 07 - 21...39 Thiem, Dominic (AUT) 08 - 22...42 Sock, Jack (USA) 09 - 24...43 Janowicz, Jerzy (POL) 10 - 26...44 Mannarino, Adrian (FRA) 11 - 23...51 Carreno Busta, Pablo (ESP) 12 - 19...52 Kyrgios, Nick (AUS) 13 - 24...53 Pospisil, Vasek (CAN) 14 - 25...54 Sousa, Joao (POR) 15 - 22...56 Tomic, Bernard (AUS) 16 - 25...57 Young, Donald (USA) 17 - 24...59 Struff, Jan-Lennard (GER) 18 - 24...60 Delbonis, Federico (ARG) 19 - 22...61 Schwartzman, Diego (ARG) 20 - 26...63 Ramos-Vinolas, Albert (ESP) As Sam Cooke sang, A Change Is Gonna Come! youtu.be/gbO2_077ixs
Posted on: Sun, 28 Dec 2014 20:10:15 +0000
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