Myanmar and coups 16 Aug 2013 Coups have proven momentous in Myanmar’s political history - now that it is on the road to political reform, a team of distinguished scholars gathered at the ANU College of Asia and the Pacific this week to discuss what might motivate armed forces to again directly intervene. "After so many decades of military dominance, many of us are convinced that the very last thing that Myanmar needs right now, is a lurch into yet another period of army rule,” Dr Nicholas Farrelly, from the College’s School of International, Political and Strategic Studies said in opening remarks. Aurel Croissant, professor of political science at Heidelberg University, maintained military coups were twice as likely in military regimes, than in non-military civilian regimes. "That has something to do with the logic of power sharing with a military regime,” he said, adding he didn’t believe Myanmar was now a military regime. “It is just a civilian type of authoritarian regime,” he said. Dr Morten Pedersen, senior lecturer at the Australian Defence Force Academy, pointed out there were some who believed Senior General Than Shwe, a former leader of the Myanmar army, was still pulling strings behind the scenes. “And that it is really a matter of whether the new government oversteps their bounds and if they do that he will simply order the army to step back in and take over again,” he said. With that in mind, Dr Pedersen believed Myanmar’s military had accepted a “diminished political role” and that not many people, even those within the military, wanted to return to “the bad old days.” Political instability could do that, he warned. “What can we do to ensure that the current situation is not destabilised?” he asked. Other speakers included Dr John Blaxland, Senior Fellow at ANU College of Asia and the Pacific Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Violet Cho, an ethnic Karen refugee who worked as a journalist at The Irrawaddy magazine in Thailand, and ANU doctorate scholar Win. Win said “Looking at justifications for the past two coups, there are two reasons that could provoke the military to make such a drastic move again: a perceived threat of national disintegration and foreign intervention”. Blaxland, a former Australian defence attaché to Myanmar and Thailand, compared Myanmar’s current capital since 2005, Naypyitaw, with the former capital of Yangon, where a series of demonstrations involving students took place in August 1988. The protest soon spread throughout the country, ending on September 18, after a bloody military coup by the State Law and Order Restoration Council. Of the creation of Naypyitaw, Blaxland said: “No way would the protesters of 1988 ever be able to gather the critical momentum, the critical mass, to block the downtown streets of the capital city,” he said. “This new capital was essentially purpose built to make such a challenge almost impossible to mount.” The military was still prominent, given its mandatory 25 per cent quota in parliament, he maintained. “The implementation of a seven-step road map is part of a deliberate and military-controlled transition plan for economic renewal while generating strategic breathing space," he said.. "The economic growth arising from the democratic opening means the military is in a sweet spot. "They can maintain their position and status while sharing some of the spoils of economic liberalisation. So there is no real incentive for them to upset the new order.” The seminar was followed by the launch of a special issue of the Australian Journal of International Affairs titled “Post-coup societies and processes of re-democratization in Southeast Asia and the Pacific”. asiapacific.anu.edu.au/news-events/all-stories/myanmar-and-coups#.Ug2tBYXZqx4
Posted on: Fri, 16 Aug 2013 04:40:55 +0000