NDTV Opinion Polls about Odisha done a U-turn is very amusing. About 15 days back, they were not willing to concede even one seat to BJP. Within 15 days, they have witnessed such a turn of events that they forsee BJP winning about 7 seats. Politically, Odisha has not seen any perceptible change in the grassroots within the last 15 days. Yes, if NDTV had said about 15 days back in its earlier opinion poll that BJP is poised to win 3 and after 15 days comes back and claims it will win 4-6 then it would make sense. But this volte face is very surprising. It goes without saying that the electorate is supreme. Tomorrow if they want to vote in BJP with all 21 seats they are free to do so. But Political Science states that there should be something scientific about the process of proposing that 7 seats would be won by BJP which comes on the back of a zero for the BJP stated by the same channel just 15 days back. I am raising this issue now since the first phase polls where BJP was supposed to do well is already over and therefore in the second phase there are no specific Lok Sabha seats where BJP is poised to win. I have travelled extensively in the rural hinterland of Odisha in these days. I was told about Modi wave being present in western Odisha through the press and media. While I do agree that Modis presence has surely boosted BJP in its presence in western Odisha but I was surprised to find that there indeed is a strong Naveen wave in the rural heartland of Odisha. It is not perceptible in the capital city of Bhubaneswar as much but I would not be surprised that the higher voter turnout comes out with a new story. In 2013 when Chattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh went to polls for Vidhan Sabha and had higher voter turnouts, again it was attributed to the fact that this is due to anti-incumbency and that the presence Governments would lose some seats. On the contrary they gained substantially despite being in successive terms of power. Come May 16th, 2014 mark my words, a story is unfolding underneath the purported Modi wave and higher voter turnout. It is a story of a pro-incumbency wave working very silently especially in the rural areas of Odisha. The Odisha which has benefitted from one rupee rice, Madhu Babu Pension Bhattas, bicycles for girls, umbrellas, blankets, 108 Ambulance, farmer insurance programmes and Mission Shakti, Mamata and Harishchandra Yojanas. There is a story that this election (which will not be necessarily and blindly biased towards pro-BJD) has which I will speak about once the Model Code of Conduct is relaxed after the second phase of polling on 17th May, 2014.
Posted on: Tue, 15 Apr 2014 20:36:27 +0000
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