NFL Gambling Preview: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots Miami at New England Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS CRIS Opener: New England -7 (+101) O/U 45.5 CRIS Current: New England -6.5 O/U 44.5 My Power Rating: New England -7 My Recommendation: Miami The New England Patriots are a very different team now compared to where they were a month ago. The biggest difference between the Pats now and when they started the season 4-0 is a barrage of injuries on the defensive side of the football. After four weeks of play, the Patriots D looked like an elite level unit; ranked among the league leaders in nearly every significant statistical category. But theyve been torched by the Jets and Saints for 57 points and more than 750 yards in their last two ballgames. Perennial pro bowl defensive tackle Vince Wilfork tore his Achilles; out for the year. His counterpart at defensive tackle, veteran Tommy Kelly hasnt been able to suit up for the last two weeks with a bum knee; still listed as ‘questionable’ for this weekend. Safety Tavon Wilson has missed the last three games, and is no sure thing to go this Sunday with his bad hamstring. Corner back Aqib Talib transformed this defense when he arrived here from Tampa Bay last year, but his hip injury kept him sidelined last week and he’s no sure thing to suit up either. Star linebacker Jerod Mayo is on IR, out for the year. Safety Adrian Wilson has been on IR since their preseason finale. Add it up and there’s one heck of a lot of talent sitting on the sidelines for Bill Belichick’s squad right now. While the Patriots defense has been riddled with injuries, their offense has shown cracks as well. Tom Brady has thrown a grand total of one touchdown pass in the last three weeks while completing only 51% of his throws. He’s thrown an interception in three straight games, including last week’s momentum changing pick six. Brady has been getting clobbered; sacked at least four times in each of those three contests. That’s bad news with Dolphins pass rusher Cameron Wake back on the field after his own injury woes. Even with Rob Gronkowski back in the lineup last week, New England converted on only 1-12 third down tries last week, while allowing 11 third down conversions from the Jets. Miami is going through their own struggles right now, dropping three straight since their 3-0 start. Last week’s home loss to Buffalo following the bye was particularly heartbreaking for the Dolphins – they had the ball and the lead with less than three minutes to play, before a Ryan Tannehill sack/fumble changed late game momentum in a big way, especially on the heels of his pick six earlier in the game. It’s surely worth noting that no QB in the league has taken more sacks than Tannehill this year. Tackle Tyson Clabo after getting beat repeatedly by Mario Williams last week, including on that late sack: “I have to take full responsibility.” The series history here is fairly one-sided from a SU perspective – the Patriots have won all six meetings between these two teams over the past three seasons. And New England has won five of those six meetings by a TD or more; four times by two TD’s or more, including 28-0 and 38-7 blowouts here in Foxboro during that span. But it’s surely worth noting that all three recent meetings here in Massachusetts were December/January cold weather games, bad news for a warm weather team like the Dolphins. The look ahead forecast for Sunday? Game-time temperatures in the mid-50’s; not December weather. This is clearly a ‘circle the wagons’ type game for Miami, as evidenced by this Tannehill quote: “Were in a tough spot right now. We have to face the adversity and grow from it. There are two ways we can go. We can tank it, or we can turn it around.” I’m not expecting a tank job here.
Posted on: Sat, 26 Oct 2013 16:56:47 +0000
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