NFL Preview by BookieButchers Instead of going team-by-team, and division by division, I’m going to focus on week 1 matchups and preview each team in the context of that. There are plenty of good sources on the web with an overview of the league and each team, breaking down each team’s offense, defense, and special-teams. I will touch up on those things in my preview but within the contest of the betting odds. Keep in mind that I’ve worked on this over a period of a few weeks, so some lines/totals might be stale a bit as well as some recent info might be missing.Let’s get to it! GB @ SEA -6 O/U: 46 Season Totals: Seattle Seahawks O 11 Green Bay Packers U 10.5 Opener was -5.5 / 45, and has shifted a bit in Green Bay’s favor here though neither 5 nor 5.5 is a key number. Seattle went 8-1 ATS last season (playoffs included) when they were favorites at 7 points or less or a listed underdog, so you can see how much respect this Green Bay team is getting from the bookmakers here. Last year the Packers dealt with a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball, so it’s really hard to look at their overall performance from 2013. When Rodgers was healthy though, Green Bay started out 5-2, with both losses coming on the road to two of the better teams in the league, @ SFG by 6 and @ CIN by 4. Packers then proceeded to go 2-5-1 after Rodgers went down. Upon his return, Green Bay beat the Bears in Chicago to make the playoffs and lost a close one to the Niners (23-20) in the playoffs. So if the Packers could go 6-3 with Rodgers in the lineup while losing by an average of only 4.3 points to SF (twice) and CIN, then that’s a pretty large accomplishment considering the myriad of other injuries this team has dealt with last year. Here are some notable players that missed time and/or played hurt last year besides Rodgers: Matthews, Cobb, Bulaga, Hayward, Perry, Burnett, Lacy, Kuhn, and others. These are all significant players and all of them should be healthy to start the 2014 season. So why will Green Bay have a shot @ Seattle in week 1? Well, the addition of Julius Peppers is big. This is the first time that Matthews will have another dynamic pass-rusher playing with him. Seattle’s biggest weakness is their O-line, which ranked 32nd in ASR% (Adjusted Sack Rate) last year. If Green Bay can get a consistent pass rush, they will have a chance to win the line-of-scrimmage battle and disrupt this Seattle offense. In addition, a healthier secondary will be able to make plays and potentially capitalize on mistakes created by the rush. Last season Green Bay ranked 31st defensively, but I expect this team’s D to improve significantly this season, especially given the fact that they were 8th just a year prior. On the offensive side, there are reasons to believe that the Packers will have more success than most expect. Yes, Seattle had a historically dominant defense last year, but unfortunately for them, there really is nowhere to go but down this year. You just cannot sustain that kind of HISTORICALLY dominant level of play year over year in the NFL, and regression is inevitable. I’m not saying that Seattle will now become a mediocre D, I’m just saying that they’ll have a hard time performing at the same efficiency-level as in 2013. If there was one silver-lining to Rodgers getting hurt last year, it was for the Packers to truly discover their running game behind Eddie Lacy. Green Bay ended the year having the 3rd most efficient run-game with their O-line ranking 5th in ALY (Adjusted Line Yards). Packers ranked 1st in Power%, 5th in Stuff%, 10th in 2nd-Level Yds, and 9th in Open-Field Yds. Both the O-line and Eddie Lacy (and other RB’s as well) showed how dominant this team can be running the ball, and that’s with Rodgers being out of action for 9 weeks. Imagine a healthy Aaron Rodgers and this newly-discovered Packers run-game, and there might not be a better offense in the NFL this season. A regressing Seattle D might have some trouble duplicating a similar performance against Green Bay in week 1, as they had against Denver in the Super Bowl. The Packers have now played San Fran 4 times and Seattle once over the last 2 years, and they’ve done better and better with time against these similarly-built NFC West top-dogs. The Packers team that will face Seattle on Thursday of opening week, will be the best Packers team in the last 3 years and I think we might see a hell of a game there. Based on the spread, I believe the bookmakers have a similar expectation. Lean: GB +6
Posted on: Thu, 04 Sep 2014 07:59:44 +0000
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