Northern Nigerian Economy Free Of Oil Revenue Sam Nda-Isaiah — February 20, 2014 Protocol Mr Chairman, I have had cause to speak and to write on this topic so many times, but it does appear that those who should take note are not in the least interested. The first thing I always say whenever I have to speak or write on this topic is that the oil-producing nations are not the richest nations of the world. The richest country in Africa as we speak is South Africa, yet it has no oil worth talking about. South Africa is rich because of its solid minerals, tourism, manufacturing and very large swathes of land for agriculture. It is not just Northern Nigeria that would have to wean itself of oil as quickly as possible; the nation itself, as a matter of national security imperative, would have to find other streams of revenue. This is because oil would be commonplace in a few years, as the biggest consumers like the United States, China and Europe take advantage of their shale gas reserves. Besides that, even in Africa, oil may soon cease to be a prized commodity. Just a few years ago, when we talked about oil in Africa, we thought of only five countries – Nigeria, Libya, Angola, Algeria and Egypt. Today, the oil- producing countries in Africa are more than 20: they include Kenya, Uganda, Equatorial Guinea, Sao Tome & Principe, Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Ghana, Congo, Cameroun, Tunisia, Cote d’Ivoire, Gabon, Niger Republic, Chad, Central African Republic, Morocco, and many more still developing their reserves. What this means is that, in about a decade, oil may be selling for less than $20 per barrel as we saw during the generals Abacha and Abdulsalami era when oil sometimes sold below the cost of production. The United States, Nigeria’s biggest customer, has already reduced its oil imports by more than one million barrels daily and their president, Barack Obama, recently told us that they would no longer need Nigeria’s oil very soon. This is because of their enormous shale resources. Many import-based companies in the United States are converting their terminals from import to export terminals. China’s shale reserve, the biggest in the world, surged five times more last year. What all these mean is that we should quickly get other sources of revenue. The North has people, land and mineral resources. With these, it doesn’t need oil. Let’s start from my state, Niger. In terms of land, Niger State is the size of the entire South-West with water channels running all over the state. Niger State can produce enough food to feed the entire West Africa sub-region. So why shouldn’t we start doing that straightaway? There is virtually no food or cash crop that does not do well in Niger State. Niger State also has so many mineral resources that can make it a wealthy state. Zamfara State has enough mineral resources to exist as a wealthy nation by itself. Thieves come from all over the world to help themselves to Zamfara State’s wealth in broad daylight, and nothing happens. Jigawa and neighbouring states can produce enough gum arabic to displace the Sudan as the world’s largest producer, if we get serious. Plateau and Nasarawa states have enough mineral resources and good arable soil to exist as rich nations. I am aware that the very resourceful governor of Lagos State, Babatunde Fashola, is seeking to buy large parcels of land in Northern Nigeria to invest in agriculture for the benefit of his people. I thought this should be a challenge to Northern governors, if not an embarrassment. In a recent conversation, Dr Kayode Fayemi, the very smart governor of Ekiti State, told me that he intended to take advantage of his state’s proximity to Lagos to turn it into a massive agriculture state. During the discussion, he postulated that there were at least 15 million people in Lagos. So if one person on the average spends N50 a day on food, then, this is potentially N750 million daily to be made from agriculture. If he targets just 10% of that, this could mean making N2.25 billion income monthly. And this is only the worst-case scenario. Lagos probably has more than 15 million people and many people spend thousands of naira daily on food. That is a thinking governor. Northern Nigeria needs thinking leaders. Northern Nigeria needs bold and courageous leaders. If Dangote Cement makes a profit of N5 billion monthly from Kogi State’s limestone, why should Kogi State go begging for about half of that from Abuja every month? One of the first acts of courage the North must show is to work and amend the constitution for states to control the resources on and under their land. I don’t see why some people oppose this. If we do that, there will be competition among states; the North and consequently Nigeria would become a wealthy region or nation. We must support this restructuring in our own enlightened self-interest. Before then, of course, we must get the federal government to put the proposed Baro and Lokoja ports into full use, open up the entire country with road networks to link rural Nigeria and get our railways working. However, to get all these on board, the kind of corruption we see these days must stop. We cannot be stealing $20 billion from the NNPC and expect to make meaningful progress. Ladies and gentlemen, accomplishing these should not be as difficult as our current leaders have made it look. We need to look more closely at agricultural superpowers like Brazil, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. These countries do not produce nearly as much oil as Nigeria, but they are infinitely richer. We have talked too much on this issue. It is now time for action. Being a speech delivered on the occasion of the Arewa Consultative Forum’s Annual General Meeting, February 18, 2014, at Murtala Muhammad Square, Kaduna
Posted on: Thu, 20 Feb 2014 22:46:42 +0000