O recente otimismo americano sobre o petróleo pesado aprisionado no xisto e nas areias betuminosas, ou que se encontra nas profundidades dos mares, não passa de propaganda. A verdade é que todas estas reservas de crude têm um ponto em comum: são caríssimas de obter. E só o facto de representarem uma proporção insignificante da produção diária de petróleo é que impede perceber este dado essencial: o seu insuportável custo! Ouvir os otimistas e os especuladores nesta matéria é adiar a transição inevitável dos paradigmas de desenvolvimento e bem-estar. Kevin Norrish (Barclays): North American crude oil has been in the news on several fronts this week, including some rapid price moves and an unexpected intervention by President Obama. Despite the publication of a new report projecting a much more rapid rate of tight oil supply growth than is generally expected and the entire Buffet-Railroad-Traffic-Pipeline meme relying on increasingly exponential dreams of the Bakken et al. saving us from our excess-energy-consuming selves, Barclays questions just how realistic these forecasts are, noting "it is perhaps wise to exercise a degree of caution over longer-term shale oil forecasts... partly because of the steepness of decline rates for shale oil wells, a lot of the very big productivity gains have already been made, and finally, skepticism around some of the more ambitious projections of US shale output due to the existence of numerous logistical barriers." ... The associated uncertainty over price levels and take-away options would create a very difficult climate to invest in the intensive and costly drilling programs necessary to keep shale output growing.
Posted on: Tue, 02 Jul 2013 09:14:42 +0000
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