#Obama Has 4 Days to Stop #Putin | The Daily Beast — #Russia has agreed to a ceasefire in #Crimea until March 21. Which gives the Obama administration four days to prevent an open war. Can anyone change Putins calculation in time? — By Josh Rogin Now that Crimea has voted, the Obama administration is ready to start unveiling #sanctions against Russian and Crimean leaders who are linked to what the West is calling Russias #invasion and subversion in Crimea. But with a fragile ceasefire set to expire by Friday, the sanctions are unlikely to work in time to head off a conflict. There are signs that the short-term measures being contemplated, which include asset freezes and visa bans for Russian government officials and business leaders, will not be biting enough to really put pressure on Putin and his friends. According to one independent analysis being studied by the #Kremlin and reviewed by The Daily Beast, such measures could be a drag on the Russian economy over time and an embarrassment for the Russian government, but would only be an inconvenience for the Russian economy in the near term. More drastic measures would include going after Russias ability to interact in global financial markets, which the analysis calls disruptive and restrictions on Russian energy exports or trade sanctions, which the analysis says would be catastrophic. The analysis by Macro-Advisory, an investment firm operating in Russia, predicts that the West, especially European countries, will not move to impose disruptive or catastrophic sanctions on Russia until Putin crosses another red line, such as the outright invasion of Ukraine. The key risk [for Russia] is Stage 3, i.e., a ban or restrictions on Russias interaction in global financial markets and/or any selected restrictions on trade or investment with Russia, the report stated. Investors assume that Stage 4 [catastrophic] sanctions are not yet on the agenda simply because these would also have a negative contagion to several EU countries, and many high-profile companies, as well as indirectly on the global economy. ---▶Read in full on The Daily Beast below:
Posted on: Mon, 17 Mar 2014 20:55:44 +0000