On Monday, the models are in very good agreement that late tonight a supercell or two may develop near the ND/MN border near Breckenridge, MN and track to the ESE. This area would start out as an elevated supercell but quickly transition into a multicellular cluster and perhaps even into a derecho. This complex is fed by extreme instability and moisture, with adequate shear, but very strong capping. Thus initiation should occur after the diurnal cycle in the early evening hours...with the strongest storms riding along the northern rim of the 850&700 temperature axis...keeping most of the storms north of the Twin Cities, although some may venture through as the Twin Cities would be on the southern edge of the complex. Consensus is strong that these storms would be severe with very strong straightline winds, maybe even an MCV if it turns into a derecho. The greatest risk for these severe storms would be across central Minnesota, along and north of I-94. The greatest risk perhaps near Little Falls, MN or a line from around Breckenridge to Alexandria to Little Falls to Mora and Chisago City. Timing for folks at the Minnesota State Fair on the southern edge of the complex may be around Midnight give or take a couple hours.
Posted on: Mon, 26 Aug 2013 16:54:59 +0000