Osun guber: Aregbesola, Omisore stand neck to neck By: MICHAEL OLANREWAJU April 27, 2014 in Politics Leave a comment Share with your friends.... With barely four months to the scheduled August 9,governorship election in Osun State, two major political parties continue to dominate the political firmament of the ‘State of the Virtuous’. The two parties are the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the leading opposition, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Incumbent Governor Rauf Aregbesola is the candidate of the APC while Senator Iyiola Omisore is the candidate of the PDP. Independent investigations by Sunday Newswatch reveal that the two leading contenders for the governorship seat have equal chances of winning the election. While it is estimated that Governor Aregbesola stands the chance of winning 40 per cent of the votes, Senator Omisore’s chance of winning was put at 36 per cent which places him almost at par with Governor Aregbesola. Perhaps what further makes the race open is that there are 15 per cent undecided voters in the state while another 10 per cent can be swayed either way depending on the way the campaign turns out. MICHAEL OLANREWAJU, in this report, describes the two leading contenders as standing equal chances of emerging victorious. The Labour Party, which could have been the third political force in the state, is currently embroiled in a battle that may consume it before the election day. There is no clear presence of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), led by former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Chief Olu Falae, and the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), led by the founder of the Oodua People’s Congress (OPC), Dr. Federick Fasehun. The other political parties are simply not on ground, or not of sufficient strenght to effectively make good impressions in the scheduled electoral battle. It is almost impossible for political observers to point at any magic wands that could be deployed by any of the other political parties apart from the APC and PDP to upset the apple cart before the election. This is so because the electorate in Osun is sophisticated, enlightened, informed and critical-minded. Sentiment may therefore not jell with the Osun electorate in the coming election. The candidate that hopes to win the election must be able to convince the electorate that he has better plans for the state than his opponent. There are some factors that will determine the way the electorate will vote in the coming election. These are ethnicity and indigene ship, even though all the aspirants are Yoruba. Other factors are: the personality of the candidates, power equation based on geographical location and, who among the various party candidates can appeal to the youths of the state Investigations by Sunday Newswatch shows that the ruling APC is leading with a slim margin of one point that can easily be erased. Random sampling of the position and support of voters in 20 out of the 30 local governments in the state reveals that the APC is narrowly leading by 36 per cent while the opposition PDP is in hot pursuit with 35 percent. Either of the two parties can widen the gap, depending on the amount of work put into the campaign. The electorate will be the final judge. Interestingly, 20 per cent of the electorate are undecided about the party and the candidate that would get their votes. The remaining 10 per cent are sitting on the fence. Majority of those in this category are political elite that would be swayed by electioneering campaigns. The possible outcome of the coming election is too close to call. An analysis based on investigations in each Senatorial District and local government councils revealed clearly that the election can go either way. There are 30 local government areas with 11 Area Offices in Osun State. Out of the population of about four million, 900,000 participated in the recent INEC registration exercise. Out of this number of registered voters, 42 percent are from the East Senatorial District which consists of 10 Local Government Areas and 1 area office. These are Ife Central, Ife North, Ife East, Ife South, Ilesa West, Ilesa East, Atakunmosa East, Atakunmosa West, Obokun, Oriade and Modakeke Area Office. However, the revalidation exercise was said to have reduced Osun East voters drastically. The APC candidate, who is the incumbent Governor, Rauf Adesoji Aregbesola hails from Ilesa, in Ilesa West local government area. The Ijesa speaking people cut across six local governments in the state. Therefore, the factor of being an indigene would, to a large extent favour him. He is expected to attract a sizeable number of votes. Therefore, it is estimated that nothing less than 70 percent of the votes from this area would go to APC. The rival PDP is expected to garner about 29 per cent or a little more, depending on the nature of the campaign before election. The youths that have been absorbed into the newly expanded International Breweries PLC, Ilesa and RLG ICT manufacturing company, Ilesa are expected to work in tandem with other allied body to get votes for the APC in the area. Apart from the governor, political appointees and personalities such as the Commissioner for Finance, Budget and Planning, Dr. Samuel Bolorunduro who also hails from the area are expected to make serious impact in Oriade local government, most especially, its headquarters. Also, the young Olatunbosun Oyintiloye is presently doing a yeoman’s job in mobilizing the youths for the governor from Ibokun in Obokun local government campaign office. In the PDP, an array of personalities from Ijesaland such as Chief Francis Fadahunsi, Chief Sogo Agboola (they are both retired Customs Officers), Hon. Busayo Oluwole Oke, Hon.Diran Odeyemi, are all expected to make an impact. They are all grass root politician that can sway votes to favour the PDP. Besides, they are eminent personalities in Ijesaland whose past contributions to the development of the community would certainly pose a threat to APC. The level of infrastructural development embarked upon by the administration of Governor Aregbesola in terms of road construction and school buildings which are transformational has continued to endear him to the citizens. Some people even see him as the champion of the underprivileged. But the current educational impasse that has forced students of Ilesa College of Education and the State College of Technology Esa-Oke into compulsory stay at home may negatively affect the gains of the APC in the area. Senator Christopher Iyiola Omisore also stand a good chance of garnering not less than 70 per cent of the votes cast for his PDP in the four Ife local governments areas as well as Modakeke Area office considering the fact that he is an indigene of Ile-Ife and he has always identified with community developments in all the councils. In addition, political bigwigs such as Chief Lai Ogunrinade would help the PDP muster the necessary votes from the area. But the likes of Senator Babajide Omoworare and Honourable Rotimi Makinde who hails from the area would work to ensure that the APC garners the required 25 percent of the votes. The youths that constitutes majority of voters in the state would play very prominent role to determine where the pendulum will swing. Highly rated institutions such as Obafemi Awolowo University and Oduduwa University with the students’ and staffs population that is generally believed to be very high and significant are located in Ile-Ife. In addition to these factors, there are numerous high schools also located in the area. This no doubt was responsible for the high density of registered voters in the area. Osun Central Senatorial District is made up of nine local government area councils. These are: Osogbo, Olorunda, Irepodun, Orolu, Boripe, Ifelodun, Boluwaduro, Odo-Otin, Ila and Ifedayo respectively. This zone would play strategic roles in determining who emerges winner of the election. Investigations conducted in Osogbo, the state capital and another council close to it, Olorunda shows that majority of the votes may go to the ruling APC. This is because the rate of infrastructural development in the two councils since the inception of the Aregbesola’s administration was unparalleled. However, many are aggrieved at the demolition of their houses and shops in recent times. The government has tried unsuccessfully to explain that it merely intended to sift the legal from the illegal structures in order to give identity to the state capital. Even though compensation has been paid to the aggrieved by the administration, it is expected that the electorate will give the necessary 25 per cent to the PDP while the remaining goes to APC. Political figures such as Senator Bayo Salami, as well as Asiwaju of Osogbo, Chief Tunde Badmus are expected to use their influence to swing votes for the ruling APC. Dr. Olu Alabi is equally another respected name in the PDP fold that may swing some support and votes for the party. In Ifelodun local government area, people such as the late Dr. Ahmed Kusamotu who was a stalwart in PDP would make the party get its minimal support of about 30 per cent while the ruling APC is firmly on ground to coast home about 65 per cent votes. In Boripe and Bolowaduro local governments, the political impact of late Chief Sunday M. Afolabi holds sway. Even in death, the structures left behind by the late politician remains intact. It is expected that PDP would rely on this structure to garner as much votes as possible from the area. In Igbomina, the two sister local governments of Ila-Orangun and Ifedayo, the APC is strongly rooted because the interim national chairman of the party, Chief Bisi Akande hails from there. However, PDP also parades political personalities like Engineer Adeniji, the Federal Road Maintenance Agency Chairman as well as Ambassador Yemi Farounbi. These are experienced politicians and they are bound to ensure that the PDP make a good outing in the area. Like in many other places, it is difficult to predict where the pendulum will swing. Odo –Otin Local Government poses an interesting scenario as the battle for the soul of the council mostly rests on the lap of the former national secretary of the party who was also the former Governor of the state, Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola and the former Vice Chairman (southwest) and former B.O.T. member of the party, Alhaji Shuaib Oyedokun. The PDP governorship candidate, Omisore did not at any time enjoy smooth relationship with Oyinlola. Oyinlola has a strong influence and control over Odo-Otin Local Government and some others in the Central District. Sources said there was no love lost between Omisore and Oyinlola due to political differences, culminating in the sudden removal of Oyinlola as the party’s national scribe while Professor Oladipo, who is Omisore’s kinsman replaced him. Oyinlola is still claiming to be the authentic national secretary of the party as a result of his recent judicial victory at the Court of Appeal. While Oyinlola has not been making public comments, many of his followers and loyalists are waiting in the wings to pay Omisore back in his own coins. They regard the whole episode as amounting to backstabbing their leader. If the ruling APC secures the support of Oyinlola and his group, it would translate to decisive votes for APC in the area. Late last week, it was reported in the newspapers that Governor Aregbesola paid a visit to the residence of Oyinlola. The outcome of the meeting was not made public. Another APC senator, Sola Adeyeye and Busayo Oluwole Oke were reported to have also visited the embattled former national secretary of the PDP. In the current mood of Oyinlola, he may not be favourably disposed to give his support to his party. The rival APC may harvest the fruit of the PDP internal wrangling. It should however be noted that it was Oyinlola that was ousted by the Appeal Court that pronounced Aregbesola governor of the state. It is believed that it is payback time by Oyinlola for the perceived ill-treatment meted out to him by his party. However, it is believed that Alhaji Shuaib Oyedokun, the former BOT member of the PDP would make sure that the party makes good impression in the area. He would ensure that Senator Omisore garners sizeable number of votes in the Odo-Otin Local Government. He has his foot soldiers as a politician with considerable following. It is expected that political development in Osogbo would rub off on developments in Orolu and Irepodun Local Government areas that are very close to each other. There are 11 local government areas in Osun West Senatorial District. These are: Ede South, Ede North, Egbedore, Ogo Oluwa, Ejigbo, Ola Oluwa, Iwo, Aiyedire, Irewole, Isokan and Aiyedade. In Ede North and South local governments, political leaders such as Senator Isiaka Adeleke who was the first civilian governor of the state and Honourable Adejare Bello will make some electoral impact. But if Senator Omisore desires to make serious impact in the area, he will have to settle his political differences with the former governor who is believed to be seriously aggrieved. In other Local Governments like Aiyedade with its twin sister towns of Gbongan and Ode-Omu, Senator Olasunkanmi Akinlabi Rasheed and the present Minister of Police Affairs, Alhaji Jelili Adesiyan holds sway. The PDP is expected to get a comfortable lead while APC trails behind in the area. In Isokan, Irewolede and Aiyedire local governments, the two leading parties stand equal chances of winning in the area. The battle for Iwo could be explosive as the veterans in politics such as Chief Abiola Ogundokun is there for the PDP while the likes of Prof. Oladipo is there for APC. In Ejigbo and Ogo-Oluwa, the political influence of the speaker for the State House of Assembly, Hon. Salaam would to a large extent give significant victory to the ruling APC. To be able to get a comfortable lead, the parties would have to campaign and secure the votes of the identified 20 per cent undecided voters as well as the other 10 percent that are on the fence. Either Omisore and Aregbesola would be next governor of Osun State.
Posted on: Sun, 27 Apr 2014 12:42:42 +0000
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