P26L … 99L (NHC: 10% 2-day / 30% 5-day) 18N, 78W 700 hPa ECMWF: Tiny pouch grows as it approaches the Yucatan peninsula. Remains weak all 108 hours until dissipating over NE Mexico, but the circulation and pouch center are a little better defined than in previous forecasts, especially after crossing the Yucatan. GFS: No distinct pouch position for the first 12 hours, and then once it is depicted at 24 hours, the pouch position “jumps” to the NE for the 36-hour position. After that, Invest 99L tracks relatively smoothly toward the NW as a weak but distinct pouch. UKMET: Similar weak start as in GFS. Distinct pouch by 36 hours in the Bay of Campeche, at which point the stronger 500-hPa circulation lags behind the tracked 700-hPa (and lower) portion of the circulation. Tracks at a lower latitude and faster than ECMWF and GFS, making landfall in northeastern Mexico faster. Dissipates. NAVGEM: No longer waiting to depict a distinct pouch. Easy to track for the first 36 hours. After crossing the Yucatan peninsula, 99L grows and tracks gains more latitude with a NW track than other models, making landfall near south Texas; however 99L is often weak and difficult to track.
Posted on: Sat, 30 Aug 2014 11:10:40 +0000
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