PAC MANS TUESDAY DOUBLE: PAC Man here. No luck with yesterday’s double, Dundalk did the job with a strong 5 v 0 victory, but Valur Reykjavik Women failed to get the necessary result despite dominating. Anyway here are today’s selections: You will need a Bet365 account to find these selections. Sign up using the following link to find these games -->bet365/home/?affiliate=365_191052 SELECTION A: Italy U21 v Cyprus U21 (European U21 C’ship Qual) – 4.00pm Kick Off RECOMMENDATION: ITALY U21 -2, -2.5 ASIAN HANDICAP @ 1.800 2nd plays 4th (5 team group). This is Italy’s final game of the qualifying group stage and they are only 1 point behind group leaders Belgium who have already completed all of their fixtures. As Belgium have a better head to head record a draw won’t be good enough for Italy to top the group and take the automatic qualifying spot. In fact Serbia are also only 2 points behind Italy, again with a better head to head record, and with Serbia expecting a win against a poor Northern Ireland side, an Italy draw probably won’t even be enough to get them 2nd position and a place in the play-off round. Simply Italy must win this game and have a lot of motivation to do so, if they win this game they will top the group, if they fail to win it they most likely won’t be making the tournament proper. On the other hand, Cyprus have no chance of qualification and therefore very little to play for. So far Italy have managed 5 wins and 2 losses, scoring 12 goals and conceding 6. Whereas, Cyprus have managed 2 wins and 5 losses, scoring 6 goals and conceding 14. When these 2 sides met in the reverse fixture Italy ran out 0 v 2 winners, but I think it is fair to say they deserved an even greater win. The match stats for that game show Italy had 18 shots to 1 and 49 dangerous attacks to 19, domination. And with so much at stake for Italy in this game and it being at home I expect them to come out the blocks flying and win this game with ease. SELECTION B: Billericay v Bognor Regis Town (Ryman Premier Division) – 7.45pm Kick Off RECOMMENDATION: HOME WIN @ 8/11 3rd plays 22nd (24 team league). Billericay have started the season in impressive fashion with 6 wins from their opening 9 games, scoring 14 goals and conceding 11. They have won their last 4 matches in a row and all we need is them to make it 5 on the bounce. Whereas, Bognor Regis Town have had a poor start to the season with a record of 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses, scoring 10 goals and conceding 15. Bognor Regis Town were actually a rather impressive side last season, but over the summer they lost half a dozen of their first team players, and it is showing through in their results this season. If we worked out the difference between Billericay’s goal difference (+3) and Bognor Regis Town’s goal difference (-5) and averaged it out per game it equals 0.89, ahead of the equivalent Asian handicap to a win (-0.5). Billericay have been even more impressive at home with 3 wins from 4 games, scoring 6 goals and conceding 2 goals. On the other hand Bognor Regis Town have only managed 2 points from their 4 away games, scoring 3 goals and conceding 6 in the process. If we now worked out the difference between Billericay’s home goal difference (+4) and Bognor Regis Town’s away goal difference (-3) and averaged it out per game it equals 1.75, therefore now more than treble toe equivalent Asian handicap today’s bet. So far this season Billericay have played 2 of the same opponents that Bognor Regis Town have played. Billericay beat East Thurrock 2 v 0, whilst Bognor Regis Town lost to them 0 v 1; and Billericay beat Leatherhead 0 v 1, whereas Bognor Regis Town lost to Leatherhead 1 v 2. So Billericay outperformed today’s opponents by 3 goals and 2 goals respectively, therefore both easily ahead of today’s Asian handicap. I expect Billericay to keep up their winning run today, just unsure whether they will win by 1 goal or more. I would always take a half win though, so if this is the case today I won’t complain. DOUBLE ODDS: 3.1 (2.1/1) If you want to see more obscure selections like these please message this page to enquire about the private group. Good luck today! PAC Man
Posted on: Tue, 09 Sep 2014 09:49:26 +0000