PART TWO OF THE SAKERS POST According to the Saker, right now, in a week or so, is very decisive time for Novorossia self-defense in general and the Novorossia fate in particular. If the Resistance will show that they can defend their independence, in a week or so there will be an opportunity to negotiate. Given the importance ofthese upcoming weeks, I wish there was someone like Igor Strelkov - who mobilized, morally inspired, and, literally, led his soldiers to many victories while he was there, in Novorossia, as the main commander. Is there any other skillful and noble military leader as him? So far, it is not clear to me personally. My hope is that the Novorossia self-defense will grow in numbers [local men should enter it instead of fleeing to Russia!], in military armament, and international support! ******* WHERE IS THE NOVORUSSIAN COUNTER-OFFENSIVE? The rumors of a Novorussian counter-offensive have been circulating for weeks, and yet no counter-offensive is materializing? Why? The key here is the numerical and technological superiority of the Ukie side. Let me try to explain. For the Novorussian the equation is simple: the shorter the line of contact (or, if you want, front line) with the enemy, the better. The longer it is, the worse. Think of the scene in The Matrix where Neo is fighting a horde of Agents Smith: even though Neo is surrounded by hundreds or, possibly, thousands of Agents Smith, he only fights 1-5 at the same time simply because you can only fit so many Agents Smith into the immediate perimeter around Neo. Real warfare is not that simple, of course, but the underlying idea is the same and this is one of the reasons Strelkov gave up Slaviansk. The second thing which a lot of readers ask is: excuse me, but if the Ukies are loosing, why are they constantly advancing? There is no contradiction here. What the Resistance does is regularly retreat to let the Ukies enter into Resistance territory, which they turn into a pocket or cauldron for them. At which point the Ukies either die or retreat. Please keep in mind that in most cases the Ukie advance is reported, but the subsequent retreat is not. Finally, the western media feeds the public approximate maps which are, in reality, simply false. This is one taken today from the BBC website: [See MAP 1 picture down below, in yellowish color]. Compare that with with this one of the same period: [See MAP 2 picture down below, with pinkish color] The contrast could not have been bigger. The western presstitutes make two crucial mistakes: first they assume that if unit X moved from point A to point B that means that point A still remains in friendly hands. This is not so. Most of the time, as soon as unit X moves from point A to point B, the other side retakes A and unit X is surrounded. Second, the presstitutes also think that all the Russian or Novorussia info is propaganda whereas what comes out of western sources is reliable. Hence, you get maps like the one above [map 1]: worse than useless - actually misleading. By the way, there is a guy on YouTube called Dima Svets who makes pretty good commented reviews of combat maps (like this one). He speaks in Russian, but if you want to just get a feel for what the real maps looks like, he is a good resource. As I said above, most of what the Novorussians are doing right now is playing the fire brigade: the Ukies attack on all fronts, as soon as they begin to punch through the Novorussian positions, the central command sends in reinforcements who stop the advance, and try envelop the Ukie force before it can move back. The reason why this basic maneuver works is twofold: the distances are very short and the Novorussians are vastly superior on a tactical level. But a counter-offensive is en entirely different business. For one thing, you need to concentrate your forces at the point you want to achieve a breakthrough. Furthermore, you probably want to fake an attack elsewhere, which also requires more forces. How could the Novorussians concentrate their forces without risking a Ukie breakthrough in their rear? Also, assuming it is successful, a Novorussian counterattack would imply a lengthening of the line of contact and an increase in the risk of being enveloped and surrounded. True, the Ukies suffer the disadvantage of having a huge territory in their rear, so it is hard for them to predict where to place their reserves, but they have enough motorized and mechanized units to move in fast, and they also have artillery and airpower. So, for the Novorussian forces a breakthrough in the depth of the Ukie territory could become very very dangerous. The two sides have not fought themselves into a standstill yet, but they did fight themselves into a draw in which neither side can do very much. The size of the Resistance-controlled territory has been reduced to a level which is manageable for the Resistance and too tough to crack for the Ukies. Now, it becomes a willpower game. Unless some external factor freezes the conflict as is, both sides will continue to move back and forth with minor tactical successes until finally one side reaches its breaking point. At that point, the breaking side will not gradually retreat, but will rapidly collapse. I am at this point unable to guess which side is closer to that breaking point. The Ukies have been butchered in absolutely fantastic numbers by the Resistance, but they keep throwing more and more men, equipment and units into the battle, over and over and over again. I dont have a way to gauge how long the regime can keep doing that. I know that there is a growing movement of mothers of servicemen who are protesting and that especially in the western Ukraine there is a movement to say we dont want to die fighting the Russians over the Donbass. Corpses of dead Ukie serviceman are brought literally by the trainload, but the junta does not have the money to pay for the refrigeration, never mind a decent burial. So families are forced to pay to get their loved one, often they are told to transport the corpse in any way they want, they have to pay for the refrigerations, they have to pay for a new uniform in which to bury the solider, and they have to pay for the funeral. Can you imagine the horror and despair of these families? And the number of thus affected families is going through the roof, especially in the western Ukraine, because the junta believes that these western Ukrainians are less likely to desert or switch side. I think that it is important for us not to solely focus on the horror of the Novorussian civilians being massacred by the Ukie forces, but ALSO ON THE HORROR OF UKIE FORCIBLY CONSCRIPTED (up to age 60! And since the beginning of the year already 3 partial mobilizations have been ordered and executed by the junta) and sent as cannon-fodder to be killed by the Resistance forces. If Novorussia can hold another couple of week or so, then the tide will definitely turn against the junta. Right now, there is nobody to negotiate with, and nothing to negotiate about. But as Novorussian politician Oleg Tsarev recently said, as soon as the junta forces feel their first major defeat, the Europeans will suddenly demand all sorts of negotiations and then, maybe, will it become possible to negotiate something. But until the Novorussian forces convincingly show that they cannot be crushed (and so far they have not shown that), the junta and its U.S. bosses will never negotiate for real. They might pretend, like they did many times, but not in earnest. As long as the U.S.A. and the junta can have to hope of winning purely militarily, by crushing the Resistance, they will never negotiate. The Resistance looks pretty good right now. What they need now a a solid and undeniable success. Until then, the situation will remain frozen. The Saker
Posted on: Sun, 24 Aug 2014 02:34:26 +0000
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015