PBA GOVERNORS CUP FINALS PREVIEW: RAIN OR SHINE VS SAN MIG SUPER COFFEE 2 Rain or Shine Elasto Painters vs 4 San Mig Coffee Mixers (Eliminations: RoS 95 – SMC 94) The upcoming PBA Governors Cup Finals is already playing out to be one for the record books. This is going to be the third time that the Mixers and Elasto Painters meet in the PBA Finals in a span of two plus years. On one side, the Mixers look to be part of the elite few who are entitled to the “grand slam” tag. The other, there’s the Elasto Painters who are out to prove that they belong in the upper echelon of PBA teams and are ready to shed their “PBA (insert conference name and year here) darkhorse” tag. When the two teams met for the first time in the 2012 PBA Governor’s Cup Finals, it didn’t end well for the Mixers who were in the early parts of the Tim Cone era. Stars James Yap, PJ Simon and Marc Pingris were all playing 30-something minutes while the bench was, for one reason or another, not being utilized as much. The Elasto Painters on the other hand, came in fresh thanks to head coach Yeng Guiao’s unorthodox rotation despite not having that year’s eventual PBA Rookie of the Year winner Paul Lee around for the series. It was so bad that, Jireh Ibanes’ YOLO defense on Yap, for the PBA Finals, was enough for him to get a Best Defensive Player-look for the whole season (despite having played sparingly pre-PBA Governors Cup Finals). Expect Ibanes to give Yap no breathing room. The second time, just this last 2014 PBA Philippine Cup, the Mixers were retooled and ready. Cone went to great lengths to get the best available talent through the PBA Draft and trades, developed a lot of his younger guys and put an onus on not having to play and rely on his top guys in a “Ron Jacobs ride DA BULL or die trying” fashion. With Cone’s team ready and well rested, the Elasto Painters didn’t look as deep as back in 2012. They were simply manhandled and out-hustled on the floor by what felt like an avalanche of Mixers wings and bigs, being made to look uncharacteristically smaller than they were (which is tough considering they have a massive enforcer in the paint in Beau Belga). This conference the two teams were engaged in yet another classic, with Rain or Shine managing to salvage a one point, 95-94 victory if not for some Mixers miscues in the end game. It should be interesting to note that the E-Painters were able to handily beat fellow Triangle Offense preaching teams Barangay Ginebra San Miguel and Alaska en route to the PBA Finals. If anything, expect the Elasto Painters to, at the very least, be familiar enough with the Triangle’s basic features (if they haven’t already). Why the Elasto Painters will win The “ElastoGilas Four” of Paul Lee (25.3 mpg, 13.5 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.7 apg), Jeffrei Chan (25.5 mpg, 12.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 1.7 apg), Beau Belga (20.7 mpg, 7.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.1 apg) and Gabe Norwood (24.8 mpg, 7.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.5 apg) are healthy, ready and out to prove that they can and will work together for the common good (especially in the cases of Lee and Chan who, prior to this conference, have always had problems clicking on the court offensively). Since Yeng Guiao added the missing piece in Lee back in 2012, RoS fans have longed to see all four guys come around and lead the team in games with consistency. Who knew that all it would take for them to jell was a Gilas invite? With import AZ Reid (37.4 mpg, 29.0 ppg, 12.5 rpg 4.4 apg) in the fold and doing amazing things (as fabulous as his rasta dreadlocks), the Elasto Painters appear to have hit their stride. There are lapses here and there, especially when Coach Guiao opts to tinker with his rotations (a.k.a. extended Jeric “needs to learn to move off the ball” Teng minutes), but when push comes to shove and games are up for grabs, expect Coach Guiao to bring in his closers and ride with them until the end. A cause for concern and almost under the radar is the team’s glaring over-reliance on Reid at times. In that one point victory over the Mixers in the elimination phase, not a lot of people commented on the simple fact that Reid scored 39 points on 34 shots. To say that the Elasto Painters’ offense that night was 70% Reid, 30% locals wouldn’t be much of an understatement. Acceptable for a cellar-dwelling team to simply rely on their import, but one that’s coming off a Philippine Cup runner-up finish? Also, to counter the Mixers’ depth, the Elasto Painters’ motley crew of discards and young guns need to maximize the playing time awarded to them by Coach Guiao. Larry Rodriguez and Jervy Cruz are studs in the box and will grab a rebound and throw an elbow or foul out trying, so the pressure’s on the guards—which the Elasto Painters have a lot of. Ryan Arana, Jireh Ibanes, Chris Tiu and Jonathan Uyloan need to step up. It would help if Ty Tang can be used since he has the upper body strength to stay on the Mixers’ explosive backup guard Justin Melton while being the proverbial crafty veteran on the opposite end. Raymond Almazan needs to get on the Elastopainters’ “hit or be hit” page and start being the rim protector that everyone expects him to be. In terms of body mass, Almazan should be able to hold his own against the lengthy yet leaner Mixers’ frontline (as compared to Alaska’s Sonny Thoss and Vic Manuel). Alex Nuyles will get his minutes, just he needs to put his head down and take it strong to the hoop. If he doesn’t, well, hello dispersal draft. Should everyone be committed in making defensive stops and not try to gamble as much (which is what the Mixers will bait them in doing since Lee and Reid always look for the 50-50 gamble/steal for the fastbreak), it will help the Rain or Shines running attack a lot more which in turn will hinder the Mixers’ from setting up shop on defense. Ball movement is another dimension to the Elasto Painters’ game that will help them win the title. This team is so much better when guys are making cuts to the basket and setting “meaningless” screens to the screener plays. Why the Mixers will win Despite being seeded lower this conference than the Elasto Painters, everyone is well aware of how deep the Mixers are in terms of firepower and defenders. The “two PBA playoffs first fives” roster is no longer an urban legend, not with the way the Semifinals went against Talk’n’Text. One night it’s S PJ Simon (25.6 mpg, 13.9 ppg, 3.0 rpg, 1.9 apg), the other it’s Joe Devance (32.1 mpg 10.5 ppg 4.5 rpg 2.8 apg). Marqus Blakely (39.2 mpg, 19.9 ppg, 15.7 rpg, 3.6apg) will always be a factor, and just to remind every single person watching live or at home why he’s a 2x PBA Most Valuable Player James Yap (26.0 mpg, 11.1 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 0.9 apg) will drop 25 points in the closeout game. And then there’s Marc Pingris (29.5 mpg, 9.0ppg, 6.3 rpg, 2.1 apg) vastly improved low post game, just to keep everything in perspective. Who stops Mr. Everything? Follow those guys up with stars-in-waiting Mark Barroca, Ian Sangalang, Justin Melton, Allein Maliksi and Alex Mallari and yes, that’s two legitimate PBA Playoffs-worthy first fives right at head coach Tim Cone’s disposal. But perhaps the best part about the Mixers and somewhat lost in the Triangle Offense hoopla, is the fact that this team can play lockdown defense. Their guards are either in-your-face cat-quick pesky or are simply taller than their Elasto Painters counterparts. Their big men are built like pterodactyls, able to cover so much ground with their length and athleticism. They spent some time in adding a few rough and tough enforcers (Jerwin Gaco, Yousef Taha and former Elastopainter 2012 champion Ronnie Matias) just to make sure that they don’t get pushed or bullied around despite their “PBA glamour boys” tag. True enough, when the Mixers are on point, there’s just no way to stop them. Every single player on the court can score and play defense, so that takes away the opposing team’s double teaming efforts. A simple pick and roll play, with the type of players on the Mixers’ roster, becomes 10x more efficient because they can either shoot the open shot or create for themselves. Lastly, this is the PBA Governor’s Cup. The Mixers are on the cusp of making history and winning Tim Cone’s 2 career grand slam. It will validate Cone’s decision to leave his old team. It will justify all the passed shots and up and down stats of some of their key guys. Some of their guys are going into the PBA Finals hurt, but it’s pretty safe to say that this team will find it in itself to keep pushing for at least three more games. The X-Factors When one of the “ElastoGilas 4” are struggling on the court, or whenever head coach Yeng Guiao needs a boost off the bench—the man that he usually relies on is Ryan Araña. The crafty lefty who has a knack for scoring in tight spaces is going to be big in this series since he will force the Mixers’ defense to extend and keep an eye on him (which is easier said than done since Araña does a great job of ending up near the rim for gimmes in a weird, Freddie Abuda/Benny Cheng manner while still being able to break his man down one on one). It’s going to be big, since if he’s on the floor, chances are he’ll face the x-factor on the opposite end: Joe Devance. San Migs point forward is a walking mismatch, and it’s not going to be as easy as sticking Gabe Norwood to him. Devance can bring the ball up, make plays, run sets and, when needed, call his own number and back his defender down in the paint for the easy deuce. Of the two, since the Mixers are deeper, it’s Arana’s contribution that will prove to be one of the deciding factors for the Elasto Painters to win. The Verdict Its going to be a grind, but Grand Slam it is. solarsportsdesk.ph/bk/bkfeatures/2014/06/30/pba-governors-cup-finals-preview-rain-or-shine-vs-san-mig-super-coffee #adminbubbles
Posted on: Tue, 01 Jul 2014 05:38:31 +0000
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