***POTENTIAL BLOCKBUSTER SNOWSTORM** ***UPDATED TECHNICAL FORECAST DISCUSSION** In my winter forecast I mentioned a very important weather fact, weather in heavily influenced by other weather. There is no better example then what just occurred today. Last night’s winter storm is heading out of the region; however this storm had a big influence on why this seemingly sudden massive storm came out of nowhere. Last night’s storm will create what we call a 50/50 low, or “blocking”, which you’ve probably heard me mention before. When you have this in place, your odds drastically increase for major winter storms. Blocking allows the storm to slow down. A slower storm allows more time for intensification and a bigger storm. So what we have here is a clipper system that will be driving to the southeast and transferring to a low pressure system somewhere off the coast of the Carolinas. This system then tracks up the coast towards our coastal waters. The exact track this low takes will determine what occurs here. A track too far to the east and the storm is a miss for our area. A track to the west, and we have a “blockbuster blizzard” on our hands. I’m 100% positive that this storm is not a miss. The setup is too good for that to happen. Now will we see 2 feet of snow? That is the BIG question everyone wants to know. Besides the blocking, we need cold air! Seems obvious but as you can see from last night’s storm, without really cold air in place, you can change over to sleet and rain much easier. Well in this situation, temperatures will be in the 20s, plenty cold enough to support an all snow event. The lower the temperatures, the higher the snow ratios! So all we need is an inch of liquid precipitation and we are looking at 12-15 inches. 2 inches of liquid and well…you can do the math…. With all that being said, I’m going to hold off on any snowfall maps until tomorrow morning because I want to see tonight’s data. Those of you anywhere from NJ and eastward, be prepared for a MAJOR storm. Those of you in PA, I think you are too far west and unfortunately this won’t be your storm. As for the timing of the storm. This is a very dynamic system. To give you any kind of exact timings right now would be a complete guess. An overall window would be Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning. As always, continue to check this page as I will have updates throughout the night. Any questions, post them in this thread. Things are about to get very interesting!
Posted on: Sat, 24 Jan 2015 21:15:09 +0000
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