Political Calculus: Why Laville has to bust a move now! The noose is slowly tightening… While many are wondering why persistent reports of the fall of government keep surfacing, one person knows exactly why government will be brought down. This person is none other than Romaine Laville. What is fueling his paranoia is the growing conviction that the UPP faction would love to get him out of the way “by any means necessary”. One of the most effective ways of doing so is by having him arrested. Our constitution states that once an MP is arrested, he is automatically suspended from Parliament. And guess who gets to occupy his seat is he is suspended? His original party the UPP! This is why Laville has all reason to be nervous about the burst of interest the prosecution is showing in the charges Jules James filed against him for threatening to shoot him. Threatening some one with bodily harm is exactly one of the crimes for which one can be arrested. And Laville threatened Jules James repeatedly, loudly and in front of many witnesses. This past week the Landsrecherche paid several visits to the Parliament building where Laville so foolishly threatened Jules James. They were not courtesy calls, and Laville is right to suspect that mischief is brewing. He is also right to suspect that his UPP coalition partners are kicking themselves with joy at this turn of events. Look at the numbers: With Laville in jail, they will have six seats. Their coalition partner the Democratic Party of Sint Maarten has two. Together they have eight seats, a slim majority, but a majority none the less. Best of all, they would not need the loathsome Patrick Illidge as a spare tire. For the first time they will be able to operate freely without a pesky, single seat coalition partner, trying to punch above their weight. The constant threat of political blackmail by a one seat faction would have been eliminated. They would have a free hand, plus his ministry to boot. The possibilities are just too delicious for the UPP and the DP not to be salivating at the thought of Laville’s arrest. Even if he were to spend one day under arrest before his trial, and a judge subsequently sentences him to time served in pre-trial detention, he would have met the definition of “prison time” thus triggering his automatic suspension from Parliament. If he were to appeal his sentence, he would remain suspended until a final decision on his appeal. This could drag on for a year, and guess what? By that time new elections would have been held, which are due in about July of 2014 any way. Even if he were exonerated on appeal it would be too little too late. Laville therefore has to move and move quickly. If he waits too long, he runs the risk of being arrested and then it would be too late for him to do what he has to do, which is bring the government down before he his brought down. A fall in government now will mean new elections. The electorate has just about had it with patch work government and even the most power hungry politician recognizes that. And new elections mean that heads will roll. Many who now are in Parliament will find themselves in the unemployment line, right next to some unemployed voter.
Posted on: Fri, 23 Aug 2013 22:56:50 +0000
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