Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. UPDATED 2013 Oct 26 0030 UTC .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was high. Region 1882 (S08E59, Dko/beta-gamma-delta) produced a pair of X-class events during the period. The first event was an impulsive X1 flare (R3-Strong Radio Blackout)at 25/0801 UTC. It was accompanied by Types II (1240 km/s) and IV radio emissions with a Castelli U radio signature including a 610 sfu Tenflare. SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery depicted a coronal mass ejection (CME) emerging from the east limb beginning at 25/0824 UTC. Earlier, this same region produced an M2 x-ray flare (R1-Minor Radio Blackout) at 25/0302 UTC as well as Type II (711 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions. A relatively narrow CME, believed to be associated with this flare, was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery emerging from the east limb at 25/0424 UTC. Later, Region 1882 produced an M1/Sf flare at 25/1012 UTC. At 25/1503 UTC, Region 1882 produced a second X-class event, an X2 event that was associated with Types II (2078 km/s) and IV radio emissions with another Castelli U radio signature including a 370 sfu Tenflare. SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery depicted a partial-halo CME emerging from the east limb beginning at 25/1512 UTC. Region 1882 continues to evolve in both area, spot count and magnetic complexity. A 25 degree filament erupted in the NE quadrant between 25/0004-0258 UTC. The eruption produced a CME visible in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning 25/0436 UTC. Another filament eruption lifted off from the SE quadrant, observed in SDO AIA 304 imagery between 25/0600-1000 UTC. Regions 1875 (N07W36, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) and 1877 (S12W16, Dhi/beta-gamma) remained the largest regions during the past 24 hours. Both regions exhibited some loss in area and spot count. Region 1875 was responsible for a few C-class events. WSA-Enlil model analysis of the events from 25 October are ongoing. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be at M-class levels (NOAA Scale R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) with a further chance for X-class flares (NOAA Scale R3- Strong) for the next three days (26 - 28 Oct). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate flux levels for a majority of the next three days (26 - 28 Oct). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is generally expected to remain below alert threshold levels for the next three days (26 - 28 Oct). However, due to the recent major activity and magnetic complexity of Regions 1875, 1877 and 1882, a chance for an S1-Minor proton event exists. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment at the ACE spacecraft was nominal. Wind speed remained in the mid 300 km/s range. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bt ranged between 2 to 6 nT with the Bz component did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately positive (towards) orientation through the period. A small discontinuity was observed around 25/0350 UTC when small increases were observed in temperature, density and wind speed. .Forecast... The latest WSA-Enlil run indicates potential transient passages late on day 1 (26 Oct) and late on day 3 (28 Oct). Solar wind speed is not expected to increase significantly with these passages. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled conditions on days one and two (26 - 27 Oct) with the arrival of the 22 October M4 CME. Day three (28 Oct) is expected to see mostly quiet to unsettled conditions with isolated active intervals with the arrival of the 24 October M9 CME combined with possible effects from the X-class events on 25 October.
Posted on: Sat, 26 Oct 2013 14:28:55 +0000
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