Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2014 Jan 19 2200 UTC Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast SDF Number 19 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jan 2014 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at 19/0658Z from Region 1959 (S24E58). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (20 Jan, 21 Jan, 22 Jan). IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18/2100Z to 19/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 329 km/s at 18/2355Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 317 pfu. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and three (20 Jan, 22 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (21 Jan). III. Event probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jan-22 Jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/15/05 Minor Storm 01/05/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 15/25/15 Major-severe storm 05/25/05
Posted on: Sun, 19 Jan 2014 23:32:40 +0000