Problems for Burundi if Nkurunziza goes for a third term By FRED OLUOCH Supporters of Burundis President Pierre Nkurunziza (pictured) are angling he goes for a controversial third term. Burundi is facing a difficult political environment early next year as the country’s parliament will decide whether President Pierre Nkurunziza is eligible to contest in the elections or not. The five-tier elections are scheduled to begin in May next year, but the opposition have maintained that attempts to have President Nkurunziza run for a third term could spark a resumption of civil war. The country is currently under an uneasy calm as the opposition is organising counter measures that could result into a civil war, due to what they see as a violation of the 2000 Arusha Accord. The Accord was categorical that apart from power-sharing arrangements, the president cannot go for more than two terms. However, supporters of President Nkurunziza argued that since he was elected by parliament in 2005 and only elected through universal suffrage in 2010, he still stands a chance to contest again. There is growing political uncertainty and Africa Review gathered that the public are arming themselves for self-protection; guns are going for $50, mainly from the neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and other clandestine sources. As a result, the number of road blocks in Bujumbura where thorough checking of cars is done—especially at night—have increased, with the police trying to pick out potential troublemakers. Some elements in the opposition we spoke to intimated that they have been emboldened by the recent events in Burkina Faso, where the former president, Blaise Compaore, was forced by the masses into exile after 27 years in power. Dr Yolande Bouka, a researcher with the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) covering the Great Lakes Region and Central Africa, noted that while the Arusha Accord is clear that the president should not go for a third term, his lawyers can easily take advantage of a loophole in the constitution. “Given the current uncertainty, constitutional lawyers can easily argue that he has only had one term under the Burundi constitution and therefore entitled for another term. The mood in the government is that the president must run no matter the circumstances,” she said. The Burkina Faso example Local observers told Africa Review that the fear of a recurrence of civil war is because the opposition are aware that even if they oppose the third term in court, the government influence over the judiciary is overwhelming. Dr Bouka noted that much will depend of how much ordinary Burundians have internalised what happened in Burkina Faso, and the events in the neighbouring DRC and Rwanda, where there is already talk that President Joseph Kabila and President Paul Kagame, respectively, want to change their constitutions to go for another term. Even though the president has not officially declared that he wants to run for a third term, his close associates such as Interior minister Edouard Nduwimana, have irked the opposition by offering that the president will run. Dr Bouka observes that the uncertainty is also emerging from the fact that President Nkurunziza’s National Council for Defence of Democracy-Forces for Defence of Democracy (CNDD-FDDD), is not a signatory to the Arusha Accord. The party is composed of the former radical with of the original CNDD, which had boycotted the Arusha talks and were the last rebel group to lay down their arms before the 2005 elections. The Arusha talks were initially mediated by Julius Nyerere and later by Nelson Mandela. The CNDD-FDDD top brass are aware that they stand a better chance of winning with Nkurunziza as the candidate because he is popular among the peasants in the rural areas. Currently, Agathon Rwasa of the the National Liberation Forces (FNL), has been trying to mobilise the opposition parties to support him so that they can present a strong front against President Nkurunziza. One-year pause But the problem is that Mr Nduwimana, the Interior minister, has been busy fermenting splits within opposition party and Mr Rwasa is not officially recognised as the leader of FNL wing he speaks for. Instead, Mr Jacques Bigirimana is the leader of the FNL wing recognised by the government. Also not recognised is Charles Nditije, who leads the unofficial wing of UPRONA. According to the constitution, those who are not officially recognised are not allowed to convene political rallies nor can they campaign either in urban or rural areas. In March, the ruling party failed to gain the required two-thirds majority to change the constitution by only two votes, in a session that was largely boycotted by the opposition. The CNDD-FDD, which holds 81 out of 106 seats in parliament, fell one vote short of the 85 required to pass the amendments. As a result, parliament decided to give the issue a one-year period in which they will revisit the disputed Article 302 which provides for a two-term limit. The government side argues that the article should be clear about the number of authorised presidential terms and the circumstances. Following the 2010 election—which was boycotted by Mr Rwasa and other opposition leaders—Amnesty International accused the government of arbitrarily arresting and killing former and current members of the FNL and of other opposition parties. Key opposition leaders, including Mr Rwasa and Mr Alexis Sinduhije of the Movement for Solidarity and Democracy (MSD), ran off to exile in neighbouring DRC. The Arusha Accord was negotiated by the then Burundi government led by Major Piere Buyoya together with the opposition FRODEBU party. But Burundian Hutu rebels with their bases in DRC and Tanzania were either excluded or boycotted the talks. Maj. Buyoya—a Tutsi—had in 1996 overthrew then Hutu ruler Sylvestre Ntibantunganya for failing to end ethnic violence. After the Accord, the conditions forced him to appoint Domitien Ndayizeye, a Hutu, as his vice-president. The agreement required Maj. Buyoya to hand over power after two and a half years, thus Mr Ndayizeye became the President of Burundi on April 2003. He ruled until the first election in 2005 that followed 13 years of civil war. The current leader, Mr Nkurunziza, won the presidential elections that were conducted in parliament. Burundi Election Timetable: • 26-05-2015 : Elections of deputies and municipal council • 26-06-2015 : First round presidential election • 27-07-2015 : presidential election, in case of a second round • 17-07-2015 : Elections of Senators • 24-08-2015 : Elections of local Colline Councils
Posted on: Tue, 18 Nov 2014 14:46:20 +0000
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