RLX issues Area Forecast Discussion (AFD) 502 FXUS61 KRLX 140739 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 339 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. QUITE COOL MID WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... COLD FRONT...STALLED OUT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF CWA AT 06Z. AREA OF CONVERGENCE OUT AHEAD OF FRONT...WITH CONVECTION ONGOING. HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OBSERVED...WITH PW VALUES ACROSS THE AREA AVERAGING 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES. SO FAR...RAINFALL RATES OF GENERALLY 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES AN HOUR...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OBSERVED. ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRED GENERALLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. LITTLE RESPONSE WAS SEEN IN AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND NO REPORTS OF FLOODING WERE RECEIVED. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT ISSUE A FFA AS BULK OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA...AND DUE TO THE OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH STILL CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WATER ISSUE IN AREAS THAT WOULD RECEIVE REPETITIVE STORMS. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND AS MULTIPLE WAVES PUSH EAST ACROSS THE AREA...ENHANCING ACTIVITY AT TIMES. WITH THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...AND STRONG UPPER AIR DYNAMICS...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY...WITH WIND AND HAIL THE PRIMARY THREATS. IN FACT...ENTIRE CWA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE FOR TODAY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO CONTINUE IN THE HUMID ATMOSPHERE. COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY...INTO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE ERN U.S. WITH INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN IN RECENT DAYS...GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST TO NORTH WEST FLOW PUSHING IN BEHIND IT. STRATUS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR A WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT SO EXPECTING THE DECREASE IN CLOUDS TO BE GRADUAL AND OCCUR LATE IN THE DAY WITH SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE COOLER DRIER AIR WILL START PUSHING IN MORE SUBSTANTIALLY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING SUNNY BUT MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AS AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE AREA. THE TROUGHING WILL WEAKENING ON THURSDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM A BIT BUT STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH THE DRY SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUING. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... BY FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THERE WILL BE A WARMING TREND BACK INTO THE 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITIES BY FRIDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK. THUS...THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STORM MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...ALL DEPENDS ON A WEAK UPPER TROUGH THAT THE MODELS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH NO SURFACE REFLECTION. THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO KEEP A CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR THE WEEKEND...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE LOW LANDS. IN ANY CASE...IT WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID AGAIN. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE TAF PERIOD...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN VICINITY OF STORMS. BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN AFTER 00Z...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER FOR REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG OR LOW CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER AFTER 00Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC THROUGH TAF PERIOD. DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AND/OR LINGERING LOW CIGS MONDAY NIGHT COULD VARY FROM FORECAST. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 07/14/14 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H L L L L H M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M L L L M H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY M M M H M M H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... IFR IN POST-RAIN FOG AND STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL/JR NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...SL
Posted on: Mon, 14 Jul 2014 07:39:30 +0000
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