Result Preview Banks: 3QCY14 earnings to post strong growth of 50% YoY Pakistan’s banking sector is expected to announce its 3QCY14 results and post stellar growth of 50%. Earnings growth of the sector would be supported by higher discount rate, higher returns on increased exposure to PIBs and growing non-funded income. Net interest income (NII) of the sector is estimated to grow by 30% YoY due to higher discount rate as compared to the same period last year along with substantial improvement in asset quality as reflected by improvement in infection ratio of the banking sector; reduced to 3% in Jun-14 from 6% in Dec-12. Results of each bank are discussed below: NBP: Recovery in core income to support 3QCY14 results We expect NBPs 9MCY14 EPS to clock in at PKR5.88, up 1.0x YoY. 3QCY14 EPS is estimated at PKR2.06, up 18x YoY. HBL: Strong core and non-core income to support bottom line growth We expect HBL to post 9MCY14 EPS of PKR15.67, up 29% YoY. 3QCY14 EPS is estimated at PKR5.8, up 33% YoY. HBL is also expected to announce a cash payout of PKR2.25/sh taking 9M payout to PKR6.32/sh, up 12% YoY. UBL: Strong asset quality continues to support bottom line UBL is estimated to post 9MCY14 EPS of PKR13.37, up 27% YoY. 3QCY14 EPS is expected to clock in at PKR4.77, up 25% YoY. UBL is also expected to announce a cash payout of PKR2.5/sh taking 9MCY14 payout to PKR7.5/sh, up 25% YoY. MCB: Strong asset quality continues to support bottom line MCB is scheduled to announce its 9MCY14 results on October 21, 2014. We expect MCB to post 9MCY14 EPS of PKR16.2, up 5% YoY. 3QCY14 EPS is expected to clock in at PKR5.67, up 19% YoY. MCB is also expected to announce a cash payout PKR3.5/sh taking 9MCY14 payout to PKR10/sh, up 5% YoY. BAFL: Weak non-interest income and higher provisioning might limit earnings growth BAFL’s 9MCY14 EPS is expected to clock in at PKR3.09, up 26% YoY. 3QCY14 EPS is estimated at PKR1.16, up 14%YoY. BAHL: Strong core income to continue momentum We expect BAHL’s 9MCY14 EPS to clock in at PKR4.02, up 21% YoY. 3QCY14 EPS is projected at PKR1.38, up 22% YoY. AKBL: Earnings growth backed by higher revenues AKBL is scheduled to announce its 9MCY14 results on October 25th, 2014. We expect the bank to post stellar growth in 9MCY14 EPS due to primarily low base effect while managing to improve total revenues by 41% YoY to PKR12.8bn. BIPL: Expansive despite strong earnings growth We expect BIPL’s 9MCY14 EPS to clock in at PKR0.5, up 3.2x YoY. 3QCY14 EPS is projected at PKR0.2, up1.9x YoY.
Posted on: Fri, 17 Oct 2014 08:33:20 +0000
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