Rise of smaller parties heralds new political era THE YEAR at Westmin ster is drawing to a close with the outcome of next years race for Downing Street as uncertain as ever. Twelve months ago, the last major opinion poll of 2013, published by Populus, gave Labour a two per cent lead over the Tories. This week, the same polling firm showed exactly the same gap between the two biggest parties. Glum faces on the Labour benches at the final Prime Ministers Questions ding dong of this year on Wednesday suggested Ed Milibands troops do not really believe victory is in their grasp. Morale was slightly higher when Tory MPs mustered for their final meeting before the seasonal break later that afternoon, but not much. David Camerons speech to the 1922 Committee of Conservative backbenchers focused on jittery warnings about the uncertainty threatening the economy if he were turfed out of office rather than an optimistic vision of his ambitions for a second term. The message he told them to take out on the doorsteps was: If you vote any other way apart from Conservative you cannot guarantee what the future is going to be. No MP dares predict the winner – in terms of who will be prime minis ter – of next Mays general election with any degree of confidence. Lower down the running order, however, there is one aspect of the election result that looks worth a punt for anyone thinking of an each way bet: that the UK Independence Party will get substantially more votes than the Lib Dems. NIGEL FARAGEs Peoples Army has main tained support of around 15 to 16 per cent of voters quizzed for most of the past 12 months. Backing for Nick Cleggs dwindling platoon, in contrast, has rarely broken into double figures and frequently slumped as low as six per cent this year. Finishing fifth behind the Greens is a very real prospect for the Deputy Prime Ministers unhappy band. Ukip remains well ahead of the Lib Dems even accounting for a recent dip in the polls last week. Yet while the anti Brussels party remains on course to thrash the Lib Dems in number of votes cast, it has only a slim chance of getting more MPs. Mr Farage has set his sights on snatching dozens of seats next year. Most independent analysis still suggests Ukip faces a huge hurdle to gain first place in many constituen cies. The party may have significant support but in only a few areas – such as Clacton, currently represented by Ukip MP Douglas Carswell – is it concentrated enough to top the poll. Ukip voters will be entitled to feel deeply aggrieved if, as seems likely, Mr Clegg ends up with substantially more MPs than Mr Farage. Such an outcome is bound to resurrect debate about West minsters electoral system that appeared to have been laid to rest by the failure of the alternative vote referendum campaign in 2011. Back then electoral reform was a fashionable cause championed by a few liberals and Left wingers that left much of the electorate cold. But the expectation is that next years election will see many voters who feel ignored by the mainstream political establishment turn to smaller parties such as Ukip and the Greens to give them a voice. If the electoral system throws up a result that still leaves those angry voters disenfranchised there could be a much broader alliance campaigning for changing the way Britain votes in Parliamentary elections. ALREADY there are signs of growing support for a shake up to give smaller parties more representation in the Commons. A survey of voters in marginal constituencies commis sioned by the Electoral Reform Society and taken by pollsters ComRes was published last week. It found that two thirds thought the rise of insurgent parties was good for democracy while 51 per cent wanted to see the domination by two big parties ended. Westminsters first past the post voting system has served the country in mass elections for more than a century. A new era of multi party politics could finally bring about its end. express.co.uk/comment/columnists/macer-hall/548008/Macer-Hall-on-rise-of-Ukip-heralding-new-political-era
Posted on: Sat, 20 Dec 2014 08:38:47 +0000
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