SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED AND LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CENTER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IF THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...HOWEVER...IT WOULD MOVE INTO A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
Posted on: Fri, 16 Aug 2013 15:52:56 +0000
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