SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION Medium Range Prediction Models Four different operational global numerical prediction models (GFS, CMC, NAVGEM, ECMWF) are still in agreement that a tropical cyclone will enter PAR between 5-7 December 2014, and is forecast to intensify into typhoon to super typhoon strength as it traverses the Philippine Sea. GFS model suggests a landfall due north of Manila, roughly along the coast of Cagayan Valley-Central Luzon regions. Upon hitting land, the cyclone is expected to rapidly dissipate due to land friction, as well as the strong vertical wind shear currently present in extreme Northern Luzon. ECMWF model shows a landfall in the Bicol Peninsula-Northern Samar-Catanduanes sector, with the cyclone peaking intensity prior to landfall. Although suggestive of a tropical cyclone development, CMC and NAVGEM models dont have a longer range as GFS and ECMWF. As a result, we cant estimate the place where the cyclone can possibly make landfall PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES #BantayBagyo
Posted on: Sat, 29 Nov 2014 14:06:50 +0000
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