.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UPPER PATTERN HAS CHANGED ONLY SLIGHTLY VERSUS THIS TIME LAST NIGHT AND REMAINS IN A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED STATE. WITH ALL SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUING TO BE ON THE SAME PAGE...WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND OF FORECAST SOLUTIONS THIS MORNING. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MAIN PLAYERS QUITE EASILY...THOSE BEING A TROUGH COVERING THE CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION ANCHORED BY ANTICYCLONES OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT UPPER LOW THAT BEEN EMBEDDED IN THIS TROUGH CONTINUES TO MEANDER AROUND THE REGION AND IS NOW SITTING OVER WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI. UPPER PATTERN REALLY DOES NOT UNDERGO ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ANTICYCLONE WHICH DRIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. ONCE AGAIN MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL WIDELY SCATTERED...DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE EAST...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. UPPER TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO PULL OUT OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY AND WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY SUNDAY. A PERSISTENT RIBBON OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS EXISTED ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ATLANTIC ANTICYCLONE FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND AS THIS FEATURE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST...THIS MOISTURE AXIS IS ALSO NUDGED IN OUR DIRECTION. IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH SETTING UP AND LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS WESTERN RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN. ECMWF NOT AS AGGRESSIVE MOVING THIS DEEP MOISTURE IN AND AS SUCH... WILL LEAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR THE WEEKEND FOR THE DAY TIME HOURS BUT INCREASE THEM OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS WE START TO GET INTO SOME OF THAT DEEPER MOISTURE. STILL BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CREEP UP VERY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS. OVER THE WEEKEND HIGHS SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY AND UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH LIFTS OUT. ANOTHER DIFFERENCE WITH THIS WIND SHIFT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. MAV/MEX NUMBERS LOOK REASONABLE AND ARE GENERALLY ACCEPTED. &&
Posted on: Thu, 04 Jul 2013 09:19:04 +0000
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