SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1050 PM EDT FRI SEP 27 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. 1. UPDATED...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SATELLITE-DERIVED WIND DATA INDICATE THAT A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 700 MILES ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IS PRODUCING WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE. HOWEVER...THE ASSOC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING DISPLACED NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR ADDIT. DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES GENERALLY N AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40% OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 % OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND CONDITIONS COULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Posted on: Sat, 28 Sep 2013 03:09:33 +0000
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