SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ACROSS FAR SRN MN AND NCNTRL IA REACHING SWRN WI AROUND MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. GENERAL DOWNWARD TRENDS SUGGEST THAT A NEW WW WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING NEAR THE MN-IA STATELINE. THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG A SHARPLY DEFINED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SIOUX FALLS AREA EWD INTO NERN IA. SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR OF THE BOUNDARY ARE IN THE MID 60S F WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A 40 TO 45 KT LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE LACROSSE WI WSR-88D VWP SHOWS 55 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED WITH TIME OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. ..BROYLES/WEISS.. 10/05/2013
Posted on: Sat, 05 Oct 2013 03:35:34 +0000
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